Spot container freight rates from Asia to the United States appear to have reached their post-Hormuz crisis peak, but shipping costs are still expected to remain high through the end of 2026, according to Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand.
The latest market data show that average spot rates rose slightly on October 1, reaching $8,346 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) on the U.S. West Coast and $11,523 per FEU on the East Coast. Compared with September 24, those levels represented increases of 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively. Rates nevertheless remained more than four times above their pre-crisis levels recorded on February 28.
“Spot rates from Far East to the U.S. ticked up again on October 1, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026,” Sand said.
Several factors are now beginning to ease pressure on the market. Port congestion in Asia is improving as the typhoon season draws to a close, while China’s Golden Week and national holidays are reducing export activity during the first week of October.
“Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year,” Sand said.
Xeneta expects the correction to be more pronounced on the Asia–U.S. East Coast trade than on the West Coast route, largely because East Coast rates started from a much higher level. On October 1, the East Coast commanded a premium of $3,177 per FEU over the West Coast, compared with only $772 before the Hormuz crisis.
According to Sand, that gap should gradually narrow as freight rates decline during the remainder of the year. Over the next three months, he expects East Coast spot rates to fall into a range of $6,000 to $7,000 per FEU, while West Coast rates are projected to settle at around $4,500 to $5,500.
“That would be a sizable correction, but not a collapse,” he said.
The expected shift on U.S.-bound services comes after an earlier reversal on routes from the Far East to Europe. Sand noted that rates to both North Europe and the Mediterranean reached their peaks much earlier and have been declining since the beginning of July.
In the latest week, spot rates from Asia to North Europe fell 2.1% to $3,726 per FEU. Rates to the Mediterranean dropped 4.6% to $4,105 per FEU. Despite those declines, prices remained 67.9% and 23.3% above their respective February 28 pre-crisis levels.
On the North Europe–U.S. East Coast trade, rates also moved lower, declining 2.2% week over week to $2,893 per FEU. Even after that decrease, rates were still 95.9% above the February 28 baseline.
Sand warned, however, that the current outlook remains exposed to further shocks.
“We can also not discount further major disruptions or geopolitic conflict that would change the situation dramatically once again,” he said.
