The peak season for US container imports is gradually losing momentum after an unusually prolonged period of elevated volumes that extended throughout the summer and into early fall, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The latest edition of the Global Port Tracker, compiled by the NRF and Hackett Associates, suggests that August was likely the busiest month of 2026, displacing September as the anticipated peak. Import volumes are now expected to moderate during the remaining months of the year as retailers move away from stocking holiday merchandise and focus instead on inventory replenishment and preparations for early 2027.
“Even with any fluctuations in final data, we’re likely past the busiest part of the year,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. He noted that the peak season began earlier than usual and remained extended throughout the summer and early fall, with differences between monthly volumes often amounting to little more than a rounding error.
August records the highest import volumes of the year
The Global Port Tracker tracks 31 ports and the latest final numbers show the ports handled 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in August. It was a 0.4% increase on July but volumes were 0.7% lower compared with August 2025.
The NRF has also downgraded its September forecast. Imports are now forecast to reach 2.28 million TEUs, down from 2.31 million TEUs previously. Even with the adjustment, the revised figure would still be an 8.2 percent increase over the same period last year.
The report forecasts 2.25 million TEUs for October, an 8.5% increase from the same month last year. Volumes are then expected to drop to 2 million TEUs in November, reflecting the gradual slowdown expected towards the year-end.
Consumer spending continues to support cargo flows
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said import volumes have benefited from resilient consumer spending. This strength has persisted despite weakening economic indicators, declining consumer confidence and rising inflation.
The latest projections therefore point to a gradual retreat from the high volumes recorded during the summer rather than a sudden contraction in cargo demand. Although monthly shipments are expected to slow, September and October are still forecast to outperform their respective levels from a year earlier.
Retailers turn to replenishment and early 2027 preparations
With most holiday merchandise already having arrived at US ports, the focus is shifting toward last-minute inventory replenishment and preparations for the beginning of 2027.
Gold said these activities are expected to sustain shipments for the remainder of the year, even as the extended peak season draws to a close.
For the full year, the NRF projects that imports through the ports covered by the Global Port Tracker will total 25.8 million TEUs, representing a 1.4% increase compared with 2025.
Related articles about Import
HPE tackles memory constraints through supplier agreements and stronger forecastingSeptember 16, 2026
July Imports Hit Record High, But Clouds Loom for Rest of 2025August 20, 2025
Port Houston container volumes inch up in August as steel imports jump 54%October 2, 2026
US Customs moves to tighten rules on low-value importsOctober 8, 2026
New report: US imports fell 4.5% in year after Liberation Day tariffsSeptember 24, 2026
