Golden Week fails to bring significant relief to Transpacific ocean freight rates

China’s Golden Week is offering limited relief to shippers facing high Transpacific ocean freight costs. Although carriers have increased blank sailings around the holiday, weather-related disruptions at major Chinese ports continue to put pressure on rates, according to Freightos’ October 6 weekly market update.

Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast declined by 3% week over week to $8,322 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). On the Asia–U.S. East Coast route, rates remained unchanged at $9,606 per FEU. Both figures were reported by Freightos as of October 6.

The additional blank sailings could help stabilize rates in the short term. However, persistent port congestion and operational disruptions are likely to keep the underlying cost of Transpacific shipping elevated.

Golden Week brings little respite for ocean shippers

China’s Golden Week, which ran from October 1 to October 7 this year, typically brings a temporary slowdown in factory production and logistics activity. The holiday often gives ocean freight markets an opportunity to cool following the peak shipping season.

This year, however, conditions remain difficult. Albert Zerega, senior vice president of commercial at American Global Logistics, noted in a LinkedIn post that ocean shippers are not experiencing the usual breathing space associated with the holiday.

According to Freightos, the market would normally be moving into a period of softer demand following the peak season and ahead of the Lunar New Year shipping rush. Instead, elevated freight rates and continuing operational challenges are complicating the seasonal transition.

Zerega also highlighted the scale of congestion at Chinese ports. As of mid-September, 157 vessels were waiting at berth in Shanghai, while delays were running approximately seven to 10 days. He said carriers had chosen to push rates that were already elevated amid these conditions.

The disruptions are expected to continue into October, according to his LinkedIn assessment.

Typhoon disruption still limiting capacity

Weather-related disruptions at the major Asian gateways remain a significant obstacle to a recovery in shipping schedules. Typhoons have added to congestion, port omissions, vessel bunching and schedule changes, adding further uncertainty for carriers and cargo owners.

“It could take weeks to recover from the disruptions,” Ascent Global Logistics said. However, before operations and schedules can return to normal, accumulated cargo volumes need to be worked off by terminals and shipping lines.

The delays dull the relief that blank sailings would usually bring. “Selected departures have been canceled to help carriers balance capacity with demand, but at the same time, weather-related interruptions are affecting vessel movements and port operations, supporting freight rates.”

The peak season is starting to wind down

The pressure on Transpacific rates has also been affected by an unusually long peak shipping season. The long run-up to heavy import activity is coming to a close, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates said in its Global Port Tracker report released October 8.

U.S. tariff deadlines and related surcharges earlier in the year caused importers to pull forward shipments, helping to set an earlier-than-usual peak season. The demand surge that followed went into August, when the peak was expected to tail off.

The NRF then forecast September could be the busiest month of the year for imports at the nation’s major ports.

But now the focus is turning to the last replenishing stage ahead of the holiday shopping season and planning for 2027.

“Most of the holiday merchandise is in and the rest of the year is just a matter of last-minute replenishment and getting ready for early 2027,” Jonathan Gold, NRF vise president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said in a press release.

For shippers, the extended peak season’s last few weeks could finally help to ease some of the demand pressure on ocean freight rates. But the timing and magnitude of any cut will depend in part on how quickly Asian ports can recover from weather-related disruptions and how well carriers can get reliable schedules back on track.

For the time being, Golden Week and the related blank sailings have yet to provide much relief on Transpacific lanes. As the seasonal import surge begins to wane, while rates remain elevated and delays persist, the market remains vulnerable to disruption.