North American consumers are heading into the 2026 peak shopping season with greater spending intentions, while retailers and logistics providers are facing higher costs and greater demands on delivery expectations. Kenco’s 2026 Peak Season Consumer Report found that 43% of consumers surveyed plan to spend more this season, more than double the 20% who said the same a year ago.
The survey also found that 39% of those surveyed expect to spend roughly the same amount as last year, while 18% intend to reduce their spending. That’s a major shift from 2025, when 28% of consumers said they planned to tighten their belts.
But the increase in planned expenditure does not necessarily mean stronger purchasing power all round. Kenco, a third-party logistics provider based in Chattanooga, Tennessee, senior vise president of retail operations Frank Loewen said the findings could indicate better household finances and anticipation of further price increases.
“One, I’m in a better place so I can afford to spend more,” Loewen told FreightWaves. “Another one is I’m expecting prices to go up, but I still have to buy my kids presents, so I’m just going to end up spending more than I did last year for potentially the same item.
The report also notes ongoing cost concerns. Import tariffs were a financial pressure for 45% of respondents. Meanwhile, some of Kenco’s higher-end customers are seeing stronger volumes than they have over the past few years, a sign of what Loewen said could be the impact of a K-shaped economy, where certain consumer and income groups are dealing with economic conditions that are opposite.
The August 2026 survey received more than 350 consumer responses, compared to Kenco’s 2025 report which had 250 participants.
Free shipping is still changing the economics of fulfillment.
Shipping benefits are becoming part of the price of admission, and consumers are coming to expect them as such. Kenco’s findings show 73% of respondents expect free shipping and 48% are looking for two-day delivery. 47% expect free returns and 40% want real-time shipment tracking.
These expectations add more pressure on retailers and third-party logistics providers who need to balance delivery speed and service quality with the cost of fulfillment.
Loewen credited much of the change to Amazon and its Prime membership model that offers a revenue stream that helps offset shipping costs offered to customers. The resulting expectations have made it harder for other retailers and logistics operators to directly pass delivery costs on to shoppers.
“Nothing’s free, is it?” “Loewen said. When not passed on to customers, these costs are absorbed elsewhere in the value chain.
To help relieve pressure, Kenco works to position inventory as close as possible to population centers and carrier networks. The strategy is based on improving delivery efficiency and getting carrier rates that provide flexibility in the last mile of fulfillment.
Free shipping has had an impact on customer ordering behavior with implications for reverse logistics. When delivery is free, shoppers can buy more and return what they don’t want. This creates additional handling requirements and puts pressure on retailers to process refunds quickly.
Only 5 percent of respondents said return policies had no effect on where they decided to shop.
More retailers are charging fees for returns, Loewen said, as they’re pushing customers to drop off items at locations in shopping malls and supermarkets. Yet hidden fees can also erode customer loyalty: 32% of respondents said they would stop shopping with a retailer after discovering hidden fees.
Customer confidence is key to inventory accuracy
Another important factor that affects the online shopping experience is the reliability of stock information. Eighty percent of shoppers said inaccurate inventory levels erode their trust in a retailer, the report said.
As retail fulfillment grows more complex, it has become harder to manage inventory visibility. Previously orders placed online were fulfilled from a single warehouse, but now retailers are increasingly reliant on stock held in multiple distribution centers and physical stores.
This shift makes accurate location-specific inventory information a must-have. Customers need to know whether a product is available before they can complete a purchase, even if they don’t know which store or distribution center will ultimately fulfill the order.
Kenco’s warehouse management systems give customers’ Shopify storefronts, order management systems and enterprise resource planning software real-time inventory information, Loewen said.
The company also employs cycle counting to verify inventory accuracy, achieving 99.9% accuracy in many instances. Maintaining accurate stock records that reflect actual availability helps to reduce discrepancies, supports more reliable order fulfillment and protects consumer confidence.
Robotics and flexible automation assist in peak season operations
In the past, logistics operators had to hire large numbers of seasonal workers or put in conveyors and other infrastructure sized for the busiest time of the year. These methods may result in firms with excess labor or capacity when demand is gone.
“We are looking increasingly to flexible automation to handle these fluctuations without having to keep the same level of resources all year round.”
Operators used to build up their labor and infrastructure capacity around their peak seasonal demand, Loewen said. Flexible automation allows us to ramp up throughput today without having to carry the excess capacity for the rest of the year.
The company employs goods-to-person systems, in which robots transport products to workers who pick orders. Kenco expects to install a 130-robot AutoStore system at its distribution center in Jeffersonville, Indiana, in 2024. The site has several e-commerce customers.
They are also using AI tools to organize orders so products can be picked more efficiently, automating work that was done by hand. But workers still have to run and oversee the technology.
“People are still in the loop and responsible for operating the technology,” Loewen said. “But with automation, we can process orders more efficiently than we ever have before.”
A peak time for spending and cost pressures
Planned increases in consumer spending are already driving much of the holiday period merchandise through the supply chain. The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said August was likely the busiest month for imports in 2026, according to their Global Port Tracker released on Oct. 8. “Most of the holiday merchandise has come in,” said National Retail Federation.
Retailers and logistics providers are challenged to meet consumer expectations for free shipping, fast delivery, easy returns, and accurate product availability, while efficiently fulfilling orders.
Kenco’s research shows the tension between what customers are prepared to pay for and the rising cost of delivering those expectations. Some households might be more confident to spend more. Or it could mean customers are paying more for the same goods.
As peak season arrives, inventory placement, real-time visibility to stock and scalable automation will continue to be critical tools for managing fulfillment costs and maintaining service levels.
