The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026. On the surface, that is welcome news for fleets that have spent recent years adjusting dispatch schedules around tropical storm warnings, severe weather and coastal evacuations.
But a calmer hurricane season does not necessarily translate into a safer year on the road.
According to Lytx’s 2026 Road Safety Report, based on more than 341 billion miles of driving data involving 6.3 million commercial drivers, collisions in the construction industry increased by 28% in 2025. That was the largest increase recorded among the sectors monitored by Lytx.
“A mild hurricane forecast is genuinely good news, but it’s the kind of headline that can create a false sense of security,” said Brendon Hill, Lytx’s Senior Vice President of Product. “Fleets shouldn’t read a quiet storm season as a quiet year. There are other risks in this data that are just as critical.”
Why weather is only part of the risk picture
Hill said the broader issue extends beyond weather and into the way many fleet safety programs are structured.
According to him, many programs continue to rely on fixed thresholds, such as posted speed limits or following-distance requirements, without sufficiently accounting for changing road conditions.
“A lot of safety programs are still built on fixed thresholds like a speed limit or a following-distance rule that don’t account for the fact that the same behavior carries different risk depending on conditions,” Hill said. “Risk is always evolving. If it’s not weather, it’s distracted behavior, or a work zone that changes block by block. You need tools that adapt to the situation, not a rulebook that stays fixed no matter what’s happening on the road.”
That approach is central to Lytx’s dynamic risk platform, which combines real-time weather information, roadwork-zone detection and speed-for-conditions alerts with driver-behavior scoring. Rather than evaluating every mile in the same way, the system is designed to take the surrounding conditions into account.
Lytx’s data indicates that fog alone can make a severe crash nearly three times more likely than under normal conditions. Federal crash data, meanwhile, attributes approximately 23% of large-truck crashes to vehicles traveling too fast for conditions, rather than necessarily exceeding a posted speed limit.
Construction sees a particularly sharp increase
Construction recorded the smallest improvement in near-collisions among the industries tracked by Lytx. That suggests fleets in the sector are not seeing the same defensive-driving gains observed elsewhere.
Hill pointed to a significant change taking place inside vehicle cabs.
“We’re seeing in-cab inattentiveness up sharply year over year, driven by phone use, general distraction, and drivers simply not keeping their eyes on the road,” Hill said. “That’s a real opportunity to talk to drivers about coaching. To be clear, this isn’t about blaming individual drivers. It’s about giving fleets the visibility to proactively coach before an incident occurs.”
The report found that inattentiveness increased 168% year over year as a contributing factor in collisions and near-misses. That figure includes handheld-device use, general distraction and situations in which drivers were not keeping their eyes on the road.
Fleet operators appear to be responding. Device-use coaching sessions increased by 40% in 2025, while following distance remained the behavior receiving the most coaching across the industry.
The reasons behind the construction sector’s particularly sharp rise are not fully established by the data. However, operational pressure appears to be a possible contributing factor.
One source of that pressure is the rapid expansion of data center construction. The timing and dynamics coincide with a significant labor shortage in the sector.
The construction industry was short 439,000 workers as of last November, with data center growth identified as one contributing factor. More than 400 data centers are now under active development nationwide. These projects also tend to offer wages roughly 30% higher than typical construction pay, attracting skilled tradespeople, including electricians and pipe layers, away from other worksites and placing additional pressure on the crews that remain.
Fewer near-collisions, but more lower-severity crashes
One of the report’s more striking findings is the contrast between near-collisions and actual collisions.
Near-collisions declined by 23% across every sector tracked by Lytx, even as the overall number of collisions increased.
Hill said the apparent contradiction reflects two separate trends.
“Fleets are actively training on defensive driving, and it’s working,” Hill said. “Near-collisions are leveling out, and the most severe crashes have actually declined because drivers are taking real precautions, easing off the pedal, covering the brake.”
Lytx has also expanded its focus on recognizing positive driver behavior. Its Safety Recognition tools allow fleet managers to monitor the percentage of drivers recording zero coachable events each quarter and provide customizable certificates as a way to recognize those drivers.
The goal is to reinforce the defensive habits that are contributing to the decline in near-collisions.
At the same time, lower-severity collisions increased by 16%, while higher-severity collisions declined.
“That’s not the ‘crashes are getting worse’ story people expect. It means safety programs are getting better at preventing the worst outcomes, even as smaller incidents still slip through.”
What fleet managers should focus on next
For construction fleet managers deciding what to change in the next quarter, Hill does not advocate simply introducing another stricter rule or policy.
Instead, he recommends incorporating a genuine conditions check into daily safety practices rather than applying a static rule regardless of circumstances.
“Build in a real conditions check, not just a static rule that gets applied the same way every time,” Hill said. “Construction zones are exactly the kind of envi
