The ceasefire between Iran and the US did not immediately reverse the sharp increase in airfreight rates recorded earlier in the year.
According to the Baltic Air Freight Index, calculated by TAC Index, average global airfreight rates were up 32.7% year on year in April. By the end of the month, the gap with last year had widened to 37.2%.
Rates surged in March after the US and Israel launched air attacks on Iran, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses across the region. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to ocean shipping also pushed oil prices higher, increasing the cost of jet fuel.
Although a ceasefire has been in place since April 8, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Neil Wilson, editor of TAC Index, said the market had partially adjusted by April, with shippers finding alternative routes and some Middle East capacity resuming. However, he said the air cargo market had entered a “wait and see” phase, with rates remaining high even as the pace of increases slowed.
TAC data showed Hong Kong to North America rates rose 29.5% year on year in April to $6.94 per kg. Asia to Europe rates increased 26.7% to $5.79 per kg, while Frankfurt to North America rose 12.9% to $2.81 per kg.
Early May indications suggested Hong Kong to North America rates had started to decline, while Hong Kong to Europe had plateaued. However, Wilson warned that ongoing disruption to jet fuel supplies makes a sharp fall in rates unlikely in the short term.
