Marine fuel prices remain historically high, continuing to weigh on vessel operating costs even as the bunker supply squeeze triggered by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz has eased at major fueling centers.
In Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) was assessed at around $908 per metric ton this week, while marine gasoil (MGO) stood at $1,448 per ton. High-sulphur fuel oil was trading at approximately $770 per ton, according to analyst Ship & Bunker.
Prices remain uneven across major ports. At Rotterdam, Europe’s busiest port, VLSFO was around $731 per ton, compared with $804 per ton in Houston and $1,005 per ton in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.
The premium at Fujairah, the Middle East’s main bunker hub, reflects the continuing effects of constrained traffic and supply-chain disruption in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Bunkering activity at Fujairah has recovered to roughly 40% of its prewar level, according to industry comments reported from the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, but activity remains substantially below normal.
Costs remain far above January
The scale of the increase is particularly evident in Singapore. VLSFO rose from $433.50 per metric ton on Jan. 1 to $878.50 per ton by Sept. 11, representing an increase of more than 100%.
Even after falling from the extreme levels reached during the most severe phase of the supply disruption, the price remained more than 60% above pre-conflict levels, Reuters reported.
Concerns about renewed violence in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz also helped drive Brent crude oil above $107 per barrel on Sept. 14.
Several factors are tightening the marine-fuel market, including the cost of vessel detours, disruption to tanker movements and restricted access to crude oil and fuel-oil feedstocks originating in the Gulf.
Refiners are also focusing more heavily on higher-margin gasoline and diesel production. That is putting additional pressure on the availability of blending components needed to produce specification-compliant VLSFO, particularly in Asia, where the market relies heavily on supply flows from the Gulf.
Supply conditions have improved
The market has nevertheless moved away from the outright bunker shortage experienced in March and April.
Industry executives say operators are no longer encountering the same difficulties in sourcing marine fuel and loading it onto vessels at major bunkering hubs.
There are still signs of caution around the Strait of Hormuz. Market observers estimate that between 10 and 15 commodity vessels per day continue to use the Omani corridor on the southern side of the strait. However, preliminary ship-tracking data cited by Reuters showed transits falling into the single digits over the past weekend.
The shift means the market is increasingly dealing with a problem of price and volatility rather than outright availability. Shipowners can generally obtain the fuel they need, but they are doing so at significantly higher prices and with less certainty over regional price differences.
Higher bunker costs will continue to pressure container lines, tanker operators, bulk carriers and ship managers. How much of that additional expense ultimately reaches customers will depend on the market and contract structure.
For contracted container business, carriers typically seek to recover higher fuel costs through negotiated bunker adjustment factors or emergency fuel surcharges. In spot markets, however, recovery depends on vessel capacity, demand, port congestion, rerouting requirements and carrier pricing.
Fleet age is another important variable. The St. Louis Fed estimated that the early-2026 fuel shock increased the fuel cost of a typical China–U.S. West Coast voyage from $155 to $269 per 20-foot container for a newer vessel. For an older ship, the increase was much greater, from $360 to $626 per container.
Fuel-price outlook remains uncertain
Ship & Bunker raised its forecast last week for the average price of its 20-port VLSFO benchmark in the fourth quarter to $758 per ton, up from its previous estimate of $646 per ton.
The company expects Singapore VLSFO to average $720 per ton during the fourth quarter, although current outright prices remain materially above that forecast level.
The continuing increase in fuel expenses creates another cost-recovery challenge for carriers. Operators can seek to offset higher bunker bills through bunker adjustment factors, emergency fuel surcharges or higher spot freight rates.
For importers and exporters, that can make landed costs increasingly difficult to predict, particularly on the trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe and Middle East trade lanes.
