Global container shipping schedule reliability deteriorated for a third consecutive month in August, with only 29% of vessels arriving on time. The sharp decline was driven in large part by worsening conditions on the Far East–Europe trade, pushing performance toward levels last seen during the Covid-era supply chain disruption, according to analyst Xeneta.
On-time performance fell four percentage points from July’s 33%, while average delays increased significantly, rising from 4.2 days to 5.1 days. Xeneta said the combination of more vessels arriving late and longer delays is making a sustained recovery increasingly difficult as shippers move toward fourth-quarter contract negotiations and the peak shipping period surrounding China’s late-September and early-October holidays.
Far East–Europe falls to just 6% on time
The Far East–Europe trade was the hardest-hit major lane in August. On-time performance dropped 10 percentage points to just 6%, while average delays reached 8.2 days. Xeneta said those figures represent reliability levels not seen since the height of the pandemic-era disruption in late 2021.
The trade continues to absorb the operational consequences of the Red Sea crisis, including longer diversions around Africa even as major carriers resume Suez Canal transits. North European port congestion, larger vessels requiring longer berth stays and weather-related disruption have added further pressure.
Four consecutive typhoons in China compounded the situation. In the week after Typhoon Saudel passed, around 1.1 million TEUs of cargo were reported held at anchorage across Ningbo, Shanghai and Yantian, according to Xeneta.
Those backlogs are expected to move downstream into European and North American ports in the coming weeks, as delayed departures from Asia turn into late arrivals and disrupted vessel rotations.
South America and Africa also lose ground
Schedule reliability weakened sharply on several other major trades in August:
| Trade | August on-time performance | Monthly change |
|---|---|---|
| Africa | 21% | Down 15 percentage points |
| South America East Coast | 34% | Down 12 percentage points |
| Far East–Europe | 6% | Down 10 percentage points |
On the South America East Coast, average delays doubled to 5.4 days. Xeneta linked part of the deterioration to a three-day pilotage strike at Argentine ports at the beginning of August. The stoppage increased berth-arrival delays by 1.6 days at ports including Buenos Aires and prompted some carriers to divert cargo volumes through Montevideo and Itajai.
The disruption came at a sensitive point in the regional shipping calendar, coinciding with the final month of Argentina’s key export season and the approach of Brazil’s peak export period.
Despite the deterioration, South America East Coast remained among Xeneta’s three most reliable trade lanes, ranking just behind South America West Coast, which recorded 37% on-time performance.
Carrier performance gap narrows as top performers slip
Ten of the 12 largest container carriers recorded lower schedule reliability in August. Six — Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, PIL, HMM, Wan Hai and Yang Ming — reached 12-month lows, Xeneta said.
The performance gap between the strongest and weakest carriers narrowed from 48 percentage points in July to 45 percentage points in August. Xeneta stressed, however, that the smaller gap was primarily the result of better-performing carriers losing ground rather than broad improvement across the market.
Maersk remained the leading carrier at 51% on-time performance, despite a six-point decline. Its Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd dropped seven points to 46%, its weakest result since before the alliance began operating in February 2025.
CMA CGM fell seven percentage points to 33%, while Cosco declined six points to 22%.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd were nevertheless able to limit the severity of their delays, with both averaging 2.8 days late. HMM and Yang Ming, by contrast, saw average delays increase by 2.3 days and 3.1 days respectively, reaching roughly nine to 10 days.
With reliability deteriorating across much of the sector, Xeneta said shippers should not depend solely on a carrier’s overall reputation when making tender decisions. Procurement teams should instead examine performance at the port-pair and individual service level rather than relying only on the carrier brand.
Africa remains the most congested region
Africa retained its position as the world’s most congested container-shipping region in August, with vessels waiting an average of 3.3 days. The Middle East followed at 2.3 days, while Southeast Asia recorded an average wait of 1.7 days.
Xeneta described congestion in Africa and the Middle East as structural, with port infrastructure development failing to keep pace with demand.
Northeast Asia ranked fifth for average vessel waiting time, at 1.3 days, but recorded the third-highest congestion ratio, with 16% of vessels in a holding pattern on an average day.
In Ningbo, the average wait edged down to 2.8 days from 3 days in July. At the same time, however, the average number of ships waiting at anchorage surged 63%, from 39 vessels per day to 63.
Holiday demand could put further pressure on capacity
Xeneta warned that weak schedule reliability combined with China’s back-to-back Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week holidays could put additional pressure on both capacity and equipment availability.
The Mid-Autumn Festival runs from Sept. 25 to 27, followed by Golden Week from Oct. 1 to 7. Together, the holidays create 10 days of factory closures and concentrate bookings into the weeks immediately preceding them.
At the same time, slow steaming, extended anchorage waits, longer berth stays and port omissions can reduce the effective capacity available to shippers, even when nominal vessel capacity remains unchanged.
With Far East–Europe reliability at just 6% and disruptions also affecting Far East–North America operations, Xeneta said shippers are facing the prospect of delayed capacity and higher freight rates as the fourth quarter approaches.
