European and US shippers are now entering a period of increasingly diverging market dynamics, with softer demand pressures in Europe than conditions that continue to support the US trades.
Container spot rates to US East and West Coasts have started to fall, as Chinese factories prepare for the week-long Golden Week shutdown, Linerlytica said. The hope is still that the extension of the China-US trade truce could add to the US demand support after the autumn holiday period.
“The truce in the China-US trade war has been extended with the reduction of tariffs on $30 billion of goods from each country,” Linerlytica said. The tariff cuts are expected to give a modest boost to China’s exports of items like small appliances, tableware, bed linens, toys, fireworks and holiday ornaments. But the changes will not come in time to make any material difference to the Transpacific peak season which is now winding down.
Pacific spot rates are down, ending an eight-week run of increases. But Linerlytica still expects a recovery in rates after the holidays, especially in November and December.
“We still see a substantial premium that shippers are paying versus the beginning of July,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta.
“Spot rates today are $2,691 (+31%) and $1,280/feu (+18%) above the level on 1 July,” said Sand.
Asia-Europe trades are a very different picture. Xeneta said that spot rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean have fallen 29% and 38% respectively over the same period to $1,590 and $2,650 per feu.
We expect a try to restore rates toward the end of October as activity picks up again in China. The targeted levels are expected to be in the range of $4,000 to $4,200 per feu.
But rates have another problem as more Asia-Europe services return to the Suez route. COSCO and OOCL are ready to run their first westbound Suez sailing on October 4, Linerlytica said, after rerouting all 10 of their eastbound sailings to the route since mid-September.
Xeneta said one by one a series of “operational curve balls” have yet to cause any major disruption. The cumulative and compounding effects are collectively of increasing importance for liner shipping.
European shippers face a difficult backdrop of uncertainty as they enter into contract negotiations.
One of the most visible stresses is the worsening port congestion and productivity across Asia. August saw a steep slide in global schedule reliability, with Sea-Intelligence marking its second month of declining performance.
August vessel on-time arrivals fell 5.9% to 49.9%, the lowest levels since September 2022.
Sea-Intelligence also said delays for late-arriving vessels were growing. The average delay increased to 6.81 days from 6.21 days the previous month, the highest level since March 2022. It’s 1.92 days longer than the average delay in August 2025.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted European trade, and lower service levels are making shippers face another round of contract negotiations under a cloud of uncertainty.
Yet, Xeneta is asking companies to look into such risks more carefully, and not simply through the prism of freight costs.
Sand urges shippers to “look at the disruptive factors on an individual basis, weigh them against their transportation needs and think about what it means to them on a corporate level. Not only money wise but also operation wise.”
