DNV is placing vessel efficiency at the centre of its latest energy-transition outlook, as uncertainty surrounding future regulations, technologies and fuel markets continues to reshape the maritime sector.
In its 10th Energy Transition Outlook, the classification society takes a broader approach to the energy transition, moving away from a specific focus on LNG as either an alternative or a bridging fuel. According to Øyvind Sekkesaeter, author of this year’s Maritime Forecast 2050, the report’s key theme is now “decision making under uncertainty”.
Speaking to Seatrade Maritime News, Sekkesaeter explained that DNV wanted to examine how changing regulations, technology and fuel markets are shaping the energy landscape, and how shipowners and operators should respond.
The shift comes as the future of the Net Zero Framework (NZF) remains uncertain. Discussions on the framework are due to resume in September within the intersessional working group for the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), with LNG emissions expected to remain an important issue because methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas.
DNV had previously described LNG as “the fuel of the future” before later characterising it as a “bridging fuel”. Its latest position reflects a more uncertain regulatory environment, particularly as some stakeholders no longer consider meeting the Paris Agreement commitments to be a given.
A technology-neutral approach
Sekkesaeter rejected the idea that DNV had deliberately moved away from LNG.
“It’s not like we’ve deliberately not focused on LNG,” he said, stressing that the Maritime Forecast seeks to cover the entire technology landscape and the different alternatives available to the industry.
Beyond LNG, DNV is examining alternative fuels and technical solutions including shore power and onboard carbon capture and storage. The objective, according to Sekkesaeter, is to consider all possible pathways rather than place the emphasis on a single technology.
The classification society has also avoided taking a position on the possible outcome of the upcoming IMO discussions. However, DNV expects those decisions to have a significant impact on the energy efficiency of the global fleet.
Two contrasting regulatory scenarios
For its analysis, DNV considered two scenarios representing opposite outcomes.
The first assumes acceptance of the Net Zero Framework as an international regulation, in line with the framework proposed and agreed at MEPC 83. The second envisages a complete rejection of the NZF, with existing European Union regulations continuing to apply.
The regulatory outcome could have a direct effect on demand for low-greenhouse-gas fuels. Depending on the targets ultimately adopted, regulation could either encourage or reduce the use of these fuels.
LNG could still play a role under certain circumstances, Sekkesaeter explained. By reducing greenhouse-gas intensity, although not to the same extent as low-GHG fuels, LNG could potentially reduce the amount of low-greenhouse-gas fuel required in the short to medium term.
The challenge of split incentives
For DNV, another major obstacle lies in what it describes as “split incentives” between cargo owners and vessel operators.
The two groups may have different motivations when it comes to investing in energy-efficiency measures. This can make decisions over new technologies and operational improvements more complicated, particularly when the financial benefits are difficult to demonstrate.
Sekkesaeter stressed that verifying energy savings is therefore essential. If companies are to have sufficient confidence to invest, they need reliable methods for measuring and confirming the savings generated by efficiency measures.
Without such verification, he concluded, it can be difficult to establish a convincing business case for investment in vessel efficiency.
