Global air cargo demand has taken a clear downward turn in early 2026, as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts momentum that had been building at the start of the year.
According to data from WorldACD Market Data, worldwide cargo volumes grew by 8% year-on-year during January and February. However, this positive trend reversed sharply from March onwards, with a 3% decline recorded through mid-April. As a result, overall growth for the January to mid-April period stands at a modest 3%.
The Middle East has been the most affected region. After posting a strong 19% increase in the first two months of the year, demand collapsed by 37% following the outbreak of the conflict in March — marking the most significant regional swing globally.
Other regions have also been impacted. South Asia saw volumes fall by 8%, while Africa recorded an 11% decline over the same period. Europe experienced a more moderate decrease, while Asia Pacific — despite strong early growth of 13% — slipped by 1% from March onwards. Within the region, China alone registered a 7% drop.
In contrast, Central and South America, along with North America, were the only regions to maintain growth between March and mid-April, highlighting a clear geographic divergence in performance.
The data illustrates a broader structural shift in global air cargo dynamics. What began as a strong start to the year has quickly transitioned into a more volatile and uncertain environment, with geopolitical risk now playing a central role in shaping demand patterns worldwide.
