Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) has hugely revised up its earnings forecast for 2026 after better-than-expected results in the first half of the year. The Japanese shipping group reported a net profit of JPY179.2 billion ($1.13 billion), more than 30% above its original forecast.

The strong results have led MOL to revise up its full-year pre-tax profit forecast to JPY345 billion, more than twice its previous forecast of JPY145 billion.

The improvement was mainly due to solid performances across the group’s main business areas. Chemical Logistics was the only division to have missed the mark, posting a loss of JPY0.9 billion, compared with expectations. By contrast, the containership business reported especially strong results, achieving a first half profit of JPY73.4 billion, 66% above the company’s initial guidance.

Longer shipping routes help tanker markets

The improved performance of MOL was mainly due to favorable market conditions in containerships, crude oil tankers and LPG carriers. Freight rates in these sectors remained firm throughout the period, exceeding the Company's expectations.

Tonne-mile demand was higher in the crude oil tanker and LPG carrier markets as shipments from the Middle East fell and buyers sought alternative supply. MOL expects the trend to continue throughout the rest of its financial year.

The company said the balance between tanker capacity and cargo demand tightened with more Middle Eastern crude oil being shipped via transshipment operations outside the Persian Gulf.

According to MOL, these developments kept the market conditions substantially above the levels seen during the previous financial year.

Crude tanker earnings evolution shows the strength of the market. Spot earnings averaged $145,000 per day in the first quarter, which runs from April to June, before rising to $281,000 per day in the second quarter, to September.

MOL forecasts average daily earnings of $237,000 in the third quarter and growth to $300,000 in the fourth quarter.

The group anticipates a tight tanker market, fueled by longer-haul shipments of U.S. and South American crude oil as alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies. Ongoing uncertainty in the region is also likely to support demand for further transshipment movements of Middle East crude outside the Persian Gulf.

Strong profitability in container shipping

MOL’s container shipping business also benefitted from a combination of strong cargo demand and tight vessel supply. Elevated freight rates were driven by port congestion, geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions.

Spot rates on the Asia-North America routes were especially strong, aided by congestion at major Asian ports.

The MOL’s business performance report mentioned the growing complexity of factors affecting supply and demand in the container shipping market.

But the company expects the containership segment to keep performing strongly from a profitability perspective, even with continued high fuel costs affecting operating costs.

Meanwhile, volumes at Japanese container ports are expected to remain slow, partly because of vessel delays disrupting port operations.

Seven vessel deliveries mark continued fleet expansion

Besides its financial performance, MOL continued to increase its fleet, receiving seven vessels to the group and its joint ventures.

Deliveries consisted of five LNG carriers for the Energy Business, one handysize dry bulk carrier, one car carrier and one cruise ship.

The company also stated that the container shipping market tightened again following a temporary improvement in vessel availability in June.

The balance of vessel supply and demand improved again from July, partly supported by typhoons and other disruptions leading to increased congestion at Chinese ports, MOL said. These factors lent support to freight market levels.

MOL to split stock three-for-one

In addition to operational and financial developments, MOL announced a stock split to be implemented as of 1 January 2027.

The plan is for each existing common share to be divided into three shares. The initiative is intended to make the company’s stock more accessible to a wider range of investors.

MOL is entering the second half of 2026 with a substantially improved profit outlook. Earnings are strong in container shipping and tanker operations, and fleet investment continues. The group’s updated forecast reflects the strength of the current shipping markets and its expectations of continued favorable supply-demand conditions in several key segments.