By Maria Kalamatas | July 25, 2025
Section: International / Energy & Economic Trends
Moscow, July 25 — Russia’s state oil and gas revenues are projected to decline sharply in July, with average earnings expected to fall nearly 37 % year-on-year as global oil prices soften and the rouble continues to strengthen.
Preliminary estimates suggest sector income could drop to around 680 billion roubles ($8.7 billion), a steep fall compared with July 2024. The drop reflects both lower crude benchmarks and reduced export receipts in hard currency.
“Cheaper global crude and a firm rouble are squeezing energy budget receipts hard this month,” said a senior official from Russia’s finance ministry. “We’re revising our forecasts, but caution is essential given ongoing price volatility.”
Budget impact and broader effects
Oil and gas revenues account for more than a quarter of federal income, funding social programs and defense budgets. With July’s earnings falling below expectations, the finance ministry is preparing updated forecasts ahead of next month’s official report.
Analysts caution that the pressure may extend beyond July, as oil prices remain subdued and currency movements continue to weigh on export revenues.
