The tariff increases at the beginning of February (GRI) are losing ground: several operators are putting their ambitions on hold, in a climate where demand is still considered too weak and where the geopolitical environment adds a layer of uncertainty. The paper highlights that tensions in the Middle East and military signals, intended to stabilize the region, instead fuel fears of increased volatility.
Result: operational decisions change quickly. A notable example cited: services initially oriented toward a return via the Suez Canal ultimately take longer detours, which blurs visibility for shippers and undermines the promise of regularity. In this context, spot markets continue to slide, and consultants anticipate further declines before the Chinese New Year.
The underlying message is simple: when planning becomes unstable, the supply chain pays twice—first thru uncertainty (stocks, ETAs, capacities), then thru “defensive” tariff adjustments and price wars to fill ships.
