The U.S. trucking labor market has reached a significant inflection point. The number of truck transportation jobs is up from the same month last year for the first time in more than three years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report for October 6 counted 1,473,100 truck transportation jobs in September, up 2,600 jobs from August.
More importantly, in the year-on-year comparison, September employment was 800 jobs higher than September last year.
The increase is modest, but timing is important. This marks the first year-over-year increase in employment in truck transportation since April 2023.
Previously the gap had widened sharply. The difference between the current year and the previous year was at its biggest around 60,000 jobs in either direction in June and July 2024. The gap was closing steadily since then. One month ago, the September number was still 9,700 jobs lower than the previous year.
A sharp drop in truck transportation jobs between August and September of last year, and this year’s increase over the same period, was enough to push the latest year-over-year comparison into positive territory.
The truck transportation industry gained jobs for a third month in a row in September. Employment has now risen in four of the past five months.
Sub categories are also moving up
The truckload driver category continued its slow climb. This particular data is released by the BLS with a one month lag.
The agency said truckload drivers’ employment totaled 503,200 jobs, compared with 501,400 in August. But that was below the 503,900 jobs in the same month last year.
That’s still a long way from the peak of the category. Truckload driver employment was 553,600 jobs in August 2022 and in October 2022.
Employment in the less-than-truckload sector also continued to grow. LTL employment totaled 248,900 in August, a decline of 1,200 jobs from July. The figure was also above the 246,000 jobs recorded at the end of 2025.
Are we seeing real trucking capacity leave the market?
The jobs numbers call into question the much-discussed notion that trucking capacity is continuing to exit the market.
The increase in both truckload and LTL employment indicates interpretation may not be fully aligned with the latest data, said Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.
The figures, Miller told FreightWaves in an email, “indicates that some capacity is being added by existing establishments.
He also cautioned that the jobs numbers could be revised significantly. Payrolls were down in March on a seasonally adjusted administrative record basis, he noted, rather than bottoming as the survey assumed.
“If the (employment data) are right,” Miller said, the numbers run contrary to public truckload carrier arguments that capacity continues to leave the market on a net basis.
Instead, he said, the data suggest a slow recovery in capacity.
The slow increase in LTL employment was also in line with Purchasing Managers’ Index data suggesting manufacturing activity is expanding.
“We also found discrepancies between the most recent employment data and the quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,” said Mazen Danaf, principal economist at Uber Freight.
Those differences could lead to lower truckload and LTL employment numbers when the BLS releases its annual revisions in early February.
Danaf said these numbers are likely inflated, and will be heavily revised early next year.
He said first-quarter Current Employment Statistics data showed for-hire trucking employment was down 1.7% year over year and long-distance truckload employment fell 2.8%.
But the more comprehensive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages showed steeper declines of 2.4% and 4.1% respectively. Danaf said those figures more accurately represented the effect of tighter regulations in the first quarter.
If the QCEW figures are accurate, he added, the trucking market could go into peak season with insufficient capacity.
Warehouse employment is still a weak spot
The warehouse sector is on a different trajectory.
Warehouse jobs are now little changed from where they were at the beginning of the year, after looking like they were recovering from a long period of weakness a few months ago.
Warehouse jobs fell by 4,100 jobs from August to September and the June and July numbers were also revised lower.
Warehouse employment in September stood at 1,831,800 jobs, slightly above the January and February levels of around 1,831,000 jobs.
The September total was 21,600 jobs below a year earlier and more than 107,000 jobs below the March 2022 peak.
Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist who specializes in freight economics, called the third straight month of declines in warehouse employment “a troubling signal” at a time when the sector would normally be building inventories for the holiday season.
The numbers could reflect either warehouse operators preparing for a slower holiday season or automation reshaping the industry’s labor needs during the annual peak season, Terrazas said.
Looking at the broader employment report that showed total employment grew by a modest 29,000 jobs, Terrazas said the numbers are a reminder that while the labor market showed resilience through much of 2026, it remains fragile.
He described it as a situation where the labor market is not shrinking, but is still fragile.
The jobs gain was positive and not far from estimates that would typically reflect balanced demand and supply in the labor market, he said.
Terrazas also said that the current economic picture offers few clear signals either way: not enough positive indicators to suggest that all is well, but also relatively few outright warnings. Rather, he said, the economy is throwing out a series of signals that should put one on alert.
Other features of the monthly report
A few other indicators provide context for the transportation labor market.
Truck transportation wages: The BLS also reports wages with a one-month lag, and average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees in truck transportation jumped in August. The average hourly earnings were $32.67, up from $32.36 in the prior month.
The figure has been up almost every month, so climbing to a record level is not unusual. But the rise of around 9.6% in a month was the highest since October 2025 when the increase was also about 9.6%.
Fleet growth and driver turnover: AscendTMS and Superior Trucking data shows the fleet growth index increased 0.19% in September, the third straight month of growth.
Those same data showed driver turnover at 8.15%, down from 9.37% in August and 15.06% a year ago.
The AscendTMS/Superior Trucking driver pay index was 154.13, down from its June high of 170.04.
Rail employment: Rail employment was below the 150,000 level of employment that has been a broad indicator in recent months.
September’s total of 148,900 jobs was the second-lowest since rail employment topped 150,000 late last year. That period lasted until earlier this year when the level of employment fell below the threshold.
The latest peak was 158,100 jobs in April 2024.
Overall, the latest data suggest a transportation labor market with diverging trends across sectors. Finally positive year-over-year growth in truck transportation employment, truckload and LTL employment continue to rise. Warehouse employment also remains under pressure, and the divergence between BLS and QCEW data leaves room for substantial revisions to the trucking numbers early next year.
