Airfreight rates may have reached their peak following the strong pressure created by the Middle East conflict.
According to Xeneta, global airfreight demand rose by 2% year on year in April, while capacity declined by 1%. The dynamic cargo load factor increased by three percentage points to 62%.
The most striking figure was the 30% increase in average spot prices, which reached $3.34 per kg.
This surge reflects the impact of the Middle East conflict: higher fuel costs, reconfigured supply chains, increased use of direct flights, longer transit times and pressure on available capacity.
Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, believes the worst may now be over for shippers. According to him, capacity is gradually returning on the most affected routes and market fundamentals should regain control.
He also stressed that higher fuel costs do not automatically translate into higher cargo rates. On the transatlantic market, prices have recently fallen despite the rise in jet fuel.
Rates from South Asia appear to have peaked in mid-April before edging down slightly. From Southeast Asia, rates to the Middle East and Europe rose by 43% and 61% respectively compared with pre-conflict levels, reaching $3.78 and $5.12 per kg. Rates to North America increased by 33% to $6.46 per kg.
From Northeast Asia, rates to the Middle East, Europe and North America reached new highs of $5.25, $5.63 and $5.54 per kg respectively.
By contrast, Europe-North America prices fell by 17% compared with pre-conflict levels, reaching $2.57 per kg, due to increased belly capacity from airlines’ summer schedules.
For the remainder of 2026, Xeneta expects a challenging period, particularly due to inflation and the decline in Chinese e-commerce volumes. Van de Wouw believes that B2C e-commerce growth is now showing signs of slowing for airfreight.
