XPO remains on course to meet its third-quarter guidance after posting another month of encouraging freight volume trends in August.
The less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier reported a 3.7% year-over-year increase in tonnage during August. The result was driven by a 5.7% increase in daily shipments, although that gain was partly offset by a 1.8% decline in weight per shipment, according to the company’s Thursday update.
While the headline tonnage figure slowed compared with the 5.8% year-over-year increase recorded in July, the comparison is somewhat more demanding. July 2025 faced a prior-year comparison that was 400 basis points easier than the one seen in August.
A clearer picture emerges from the company’s two-year-stacked comparisons, which help eliminate distortions caused by year-over-year comparisons. On that basis, all key volume indicators—including shipments, weight per shipment and tonnage—showed improvement in August compared with July.
The two-year-stacked tonnage comparisons have been improving since November. In August, tonnage was down just 1% on a two-year basis, compared with a 2.9% decline in July.
XPO had previously indicated during its second-quarter earnings call that July tonnage was essentially flat compared with June, a performance that was 400 basis points better than the normal seasonal trend. The August figures suggest that this seasonal outperformance has continued.
As a result, the latest update keeps XPO on track to achieve its third-quarter guidance, which calls for a mid-single-digit percentage increase in tonnage year over year.
| Revenue | Shipments | Weight/Shipment | Tonnage | Revenue/cwt | Revenue/Shipment | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | Aug | Jul | Aug | Jul | Aug | Jul | Aug | Jul | Aug | Jul | Aug | |
| ArcBest | 7.0% | -3.0% | 11.0% | 8.0% | -1.0% | 10.0% | ||||||
| Old Dominion | 8.2% | 12.4% | -3.0% | -2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | -1.0% | -0.9% | 9.3% | ~+13% | ~+11% | ~+15% |
| Saia | N/A | N/A | 0.8% | 1.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| XPO | N/A | N/A | 5.9% | 5.7% | -0.2% | -1.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
% change (y/y on a per-day basis)
Revenue/hundredweight and revenue/shipment include fuel
ArcBest metrics include entire asset-based segment
Another encouraging signal came from weight per shipment, which improved on a two-year comparison. The trend suggests that more industrial-related freight may be returning to XPO’s network.
The broader manufacturing environment also continues to provide important context. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI reached 54.6 in August, down 100 basis points from July’s four-year high.
Despite the decline, the index remained in expansion territory for an eighth consecutive month. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
Meanwhile, the new orders subindex widely watched as an indicator of future economic activity—fell by 3 points but remained in growth territory at 53.7. Carrier tonnage typically follows movements in the index with a lag of around three months.
XPO’s evolving freight mix, however, continues to create a headwind for weight per shipment. The company is handling a growing number of shipments from local accounts and small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), which typically generate lighter freight but offer stronger margins.
The company does not disclose revenue-based metrics in its intraquarter updates. However, XPO previously reported that contractual rate renewals increased by a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit percentage during the second quarter.
Management also said during its earnings call that yield and revenue per shipment, excluding fuel, are expected to continue improving sequentially throughout the third and fourth quarters.
XPO’s outlook for its adjusted operating ratio (OR) during the third quarter also appears to remain firmly on track.
Historically, the company typically experiences 200 to 250 basis points of operating ratio deterioration from the second quarter to the third quarter, which would normally imply an OR above 82%.
This time, however, XPO expects to generate an operating ratio of less than 81% during the quarter. That outlook points to at least 180 basis points of year-over-year improvement.
Why it matters
XPO is one of only a limited number of publicly traded companies operating in the LTL sector. Its intraquarter performance updates therefore provide valuable visibility into a segment of the trucking industry where relatively few public datasets are available.
The company’s August results offer another indication that freight volumes, industrial activity and pricing conditions within the LTL market may be moving in a more favorable direction as the third quarter progresses.
