Airfreight rates on key Asia-Europe and India trade lanes are continuing to rise as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts capacity and pushes fuel costs sharply higher.
Market sources say spot rates from Hong Kong to Europe have now moved comfortably above Hong Kong–North America levels, climbing beyond $5.15 per kg. That marks an increase of nearly 30% from the roughly $4 per kg seen shortly before the fighting began.
India has seen an even steeper escalation. According to market sources, rates from India to the US have jumped by around 60% since the outbreak of the conflict, while India-Europe services are now up by approximately 80%.
TAC Index, in its latest weekly update, said pricing patterns are diverging sharply depending on each trade lane’s exposure to the Middle East crisis. Its global Baltic Air Freight Index rose 2.6% in the week to 16 March, although the benchmark remains slightly below last year’s level, down 0.7% year on year.
The index provider said the broad trend masks major differences between lanes, with the sharpest increases seen on Asia-Europe routes and on shipments originating from India.
TAC also warned that the market could face another round of upward pressure as the spread between crude oil and jet fuel continues to widen. Jet fuel prices are now close to double last year’s level, while many carriers have yet to fully apply updated fuel surcharges.
The rate increases are not limited to Hong Kong or mainland China. TAC said larger week-on-week gains were recorded from Vietnam, especially to Europe, as well as from Seoul and Taiwan. One notable exception was Bangkok, where rates fell week on week, although they remain above year-ago levels on services to both Europe and the US.
India remains the most heavily affected origin. TAC said rates out of the country rose by around 30% week on week to both Europe and the US, underlining the extent of disruption linked to Middle East airspace and network constraints.
Freight forwarders are already reacting to the impact of higher fuel costs. Earlier this week, Hong Kong-based forwarders criticised airlines for sharply increasing cargo fuel surcharges, arguing that some of the hikes were excessive. The Hong Kong Association of Freight Forwarding and Logistics (HAFFA) said it was deeply dissatisfied with the scale of the increases, adding that some adjustments went beyond what could be considered reasonable.
Elsewhere, Oman Air Cargo has announced that it will apply a war surcharge in response to the deteriorating regional environment.
Capacity remains below pre-conflict levels. According to Rotate data, global air cargo capacity last week was down 12% compared with levels seen before the Lunar New Year period. The most severely affected corridors were Asia Pacific–Middle East and Middle East–Europe, both of which were down by around 40%.
At the same time, carriers have started reacting to the imbalance, and available space from Asia Pacific to Europe has risen by around 20%.
