Container shipping rates are proving far more resilient than many analysts expected, as renewed geopolitical tensions and ongoing port congestion continue to support the market despite growing overcapacity.
In its latest mid-year market outlook, maritime analytics firm Xeneta said both spot and long-term contract rates are now expected to decline only modestly over the next six months, a much more optimistic scenario for shipping lines than previously forecast.
Speaking at the report’s release, Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said the industry had narrowly avoided a major energy crisis, while warning that the global economy remains fragile.
Shortly after those remarks, however, tensions between the United States and Iran escalated again, pushing crude oil prices from around $64 per barrel before the conflict to approximately $78 per barrel in less than a week.
According to Sand, higher energy prices could eventually weigh on global consumer spending by fuelling inflation across major economies, reducing purchasing power and affecting demand for imported goods.
Despite those concerns, container shipping remains surprisingly strong.
Xeneta noted that global fleet capacity has been growing faster than container trade since 2022, and that trend is expected to continue.
This year, global container trade is projected to grow by around 3%, while shipping capacity is expected to increase by roughly 5.5%. The imbalance is forecast to widen further, with fleet capacity expected to expand by nearly 8% in 2027 and 11% in 2028 as large numbers of new vessels enter service.
Under normal market conditions, such rapid fleet growth would place significant downward pressure on freight rates.
Instead, the spot market has remained remarkably strong.
According to Sand, the healthy earnings currently enjoyed by shipping lines have also reduced the incentive to recycle or scrap older vessels, allowing even more capacity to remain in the market.
As a result, Xeneta now expects spot freight rates to fall by no more than 10% over the next six months compared with third-quarter benchmark levels. Long-term contract rates are forecast to decline by a similar 8% to 10%.
That outlook represents a significant improvement from Xeneta’s expectations last October, when the company predicted spot rates could fall by as much as 25%.
“If you were a carrier, you were looking at loss-making rates by the end of February,” Sand said. “Now the picture has completely changed.”
Much of that change has been driven by the latest conflict in the Middle East.
Xeneta says the disruption has unfolded in two stages. The first saw shipping companies adjust services and reroute vessels in response to the conflict itself.
The second phase has had a broader impact, with congestion spreading across major Asian ports and logistics hubs, creating operational challenges that continue to affect global supply chains far beyond the Middle East.
Since the first escalation of the conflict at the end of February, spot freight rates have climbed by more than 50%, allowing many shipping companies to return to profitable operations.
“What a difference another crisis makes,” Sand remarked.
Even so, Xeneta does not expect today’s elevated freight rates to last indefinitely.
The continued delivery of new container ships, combined with changing global trade patterns, is likely to place increasing pressure on the market once current disruptions ease.
Trade flows are already shifting.
In the first four months of 2026, Chinese exports rose by 2.2 million TEUs, or 11.5%. During the same period U.S. imports declined 5% as Chinese exports to other regions soared.
Imports of Chinese goods jumped 20% in Oceania, 19% in other Far Eastern markets and 28% in sub-Saharan Africa, a sign that exporters are increasingly looking to diversify away from North America.
China’s export volumes were at a record high in May 2026 and much of that growth is now going to markets outside of the U.S. Sand said.
Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions are still supporting freight rates for now but the long-term challenge facing the industry remains the same – a rapidly expanding global fleet that is growing much faster than underlying demand, Xeneta said.
