Container carriers are increasing capacity on services between Europe and Canada as uncertainty continues to surround regulatory developments and market conditions in the United States, while transatlantic spot rates have climbed sharply since March.
The shift in capacity remains relatively limited overall, but the changes in deployment point to a possible adjustment in carriers’ strategies across the North Atlantic.
Several factors could be contributing to the movement of tonnage towards Canada. One is a possible Canadian pivot towards Europe, as Ottawa continues to reject US President Donald Trump’s repeated assertion that Canada should become the 51st US state. Another potential factor is the scheduled return in November of US charges targeting Chinese-built vessels.
According to data from Container Trades Statistics, cargo volumes have remained broadly stable during the first half of 2026. Total volumes fell by just 23,022 teu, reaching 3.088 million teu, compared with the same period of 2025.
Headhaul volumes moving from Europe to North America declined in March following the start of the Iran conflict. Since then, however, volumes have recovered and have remained broadly in line with, or slightly above, levels recorded during the first half of last year.
Capacity falls faster than volumes
Capacity developments have been more pronounced than the relatively stable cargo figures.
During the first nine months of the year, total scheduled capacity declined by 4%. Data compiled by MDS Transmodal shows that carriers offered 9,256,765 teu of capacity between January and September 2025. Over the same period in 2026, that figure fell to 8,877,598 teu.
A closer examination of US-related capacity reveals an even clearer shift.
Direct services from Europe to North America, including Latin America, declined by 6%, falling from 6.05 million teu to 5.69 million teu.
Canada, however, moved in the opposite direction. Capacity on direct services to Canada increased 14% year-on-year, from 2.08 million teu to 2.38 million teu.
Indirect services to Canada defined by MDS Transmodal as pendulum services operating from Asia via Europe or Africa also expanded, rising 22% to 491,000 teu.
MDS Transmodal analyst Antonella Teodoro said the reasons for the shift in tonnage were difficult to determine with certainty. She noted that it could represent an early redistribution of capacity away from the US ahead of the scheduled return of the Chinese vessel charge in November.
Capacity adjustments could also reflect the continuing trade dispute between Canada and the US, particularly as President Trump has threatened additional tariffs on imports from Canada.
Direct US services decline
While direct capacity to the US contracted, indirect capacity serving the American market increased.
Indirect services to the US rose 8%, reaching 2.17 million teu from 2.01 million teu. By contrast, the much larger direct trade recorded a 6% decline, falling from 6.05 million teu to 5.69 million teu.
Teodoro said the figures showed that the overall reduction in scheduled Europe–North America capacity was accompanied by a change in the composition of the services deployed across the trade.
MDS Transmodal also highlighted the continued dominance of the US market within the North American trade. The US accounted for 89% of total scheduled Europe–North America capacity between January and September 2026, compared with 87% during the same period the previous year.
Despite that larger share, total capacity serving the US declined 2% year-on-year to 7.87 million teu.
Within that total, capacity on direct services to the US dropped 6% to 5.70 million teu, reducing the US share of direct services from 75% to 72%.
Atlantic spot rates surge
The capacity changes come against a backdrop of significantly higher freight rates on the Atlantic.
According to Xeneta’s latest weekly rate review, published on 18 September, headhaul spot rates on the Atlantic stood at $2,956 per feu.
That represented a 100% increase since the Iran conflict began, underlining the extent to which geopolitical disruption has affected the transatlantic container market.
With cargo volumes remaining broadly stable while direct US capacity contracts and Canadian services expand, the latest data points to a changing mix of capacity deployment across the Europe–North America trade as carriers navigate continued regulatory, geopolitical and commercial uncertainty.
