Baxter Freight has warned that the UK airfreight market is beginning to feel indirect pressure from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Sarah Powell, associate director of air freight services at Baxter Freight, said shippers are becoming increasingly cautious and planning further ahead than usual due to concerns over fuel shortages and rising costs linked to the Middle East situation.
According to Powell, there is currently no expectation of widespread flight cancellations. However, airlines may make selective adjustments, with less profitable routes reduced first and high-frequency routes potentially scaled back.
Any reduction in flights would tighten cargo capacity on certain lanes. If fuel supplies become more constrained, airlines are expected to prioritize passengers and baggage over freight, which would particularly affect bellyhold cargo.
Baxter Freight does not expect any region to become fully inaccessible, but transit times could increase and costs may rise.
The forwarder also noted that freight rates have already increased due to higher fuel surcharges, while rate validity has shortened. This forces shippers and forwarders to make faster booking decisions and reduces room for long-term planning.
WorldACD data showed the average air cargo spot rate increased 1% week on week in the week ending April 19, reaching $3.73 per kg.
Kuehne+Nagel has also been conducting scenario planning with major customers in case fuel shortages emerge, especially in Southeast Asia, where supply is considered more vulnerable.
