Container shipping schedule reliability dropped again in the third quarter, according to the latest data from Xeneta, with vessels arriving on average six days late. That is 2.4 days longer than at the start of the second quarter, when bottlenecks at Asian ports continued to reverberate through shipping networks, causing more delays.
In September the situation deteriorated further, with the share of vessels arriving on time dropping by two percentage points from August to just 27%. Reliability is expected to fall further in October as the cumulative effects of the typhoons that started to disrupt operations in July continue to impact Asian export routes, says freight intelligence platform Xeneta.
The gap in shipping performance is becoming more and more geographical, according to Destine Ozuygur, senior analyst at Xeneta. Asia-related trades are heading for their worst on-time arrival rates and highest average delays in a year.
Typhoons, coupled with existing operational limitations, could threaten a prolonged interruption to the supply chain, Ozuygur said. Under the right conditions, the effects can last for months after the initial weather event and can extend well beyond the regions directly impacted by the storms.
The weekly figures show the deterioration. In the first week of August, 62% of vessels arriving from Asia were on time, but this had fallen to 34% in the week beginning September 28, as the full effect of weather delays began to bite.
The heaviest loading is on Asia–Europe routes
Asia-Europe trade has been especially badly disrupted. Xeneta said only 4% of vessels on these routes arrived on time and average delays were 9.9 days.
The on-time performance figure is the worst since September 2021, when the average reliability of arrivals on Asia-North America routes fell to 3%.
For every carrier tracked by Xeneta, September also saw the highest average delays over the previous 12 months. But only four carriers posted their worst on-time arrival performance over the same period: CMA CGM – 30%, Cosco – 18%, Hapag-Lloyd – 45% and Yang Ming – just 4%.
Increasing unreliability in vessel schedules creates serious problems for inventory management. Delays have become so severe that the extra time companies normally build into their supply chains is no longer enough to protect the flow of goods. Later deliveries may also render contingency measures ineffective.
The performance gap between carriers is also shrinking. Yang Ming is at the bottom of the reliability spectrum with just 4% of vessels arriving on time, while Maersk is at the top end with 47% after a four percentage point drop.
The results also highlight the challenges of the Gemini Cooperation, whose partners started their collaboration in February 2025 with the aim of achieving a schedule reliability above 90%. But aside from that ambition, the network has struggled to deliver such performance amid repeated global supply chain disruptions.
Both Gemini partners have now seen five consecutive months of month-on-month declines. Xeneta said that network-wide on-time arrivals fell from 70% in June to 40% in September, a sharper drop than seen in other shipping alliances.
Congestion from Chinese ports spreads across Asia
China’s port congestion is causing ripple effects across the region as vessels stranded at one port arrive in flocks at the next. These disruptions are also putting increasing pressure on other Asian hubs, including Singapore.
In Singapore, the average number of vessels waiting each day increased from 12 to 22 and waiting times rose to 3.1 days.
Chinese ports are still seeing long queues, and the effects are increasingly apparent in berth-arrival delays for shipments headed to North America and Europe.
The queue length pattern has been different in Shanghai. Its average daily vessel queue fell from 101 to 86 ships, but average waiting times still increased, from 1.9 days to 2.7 days.
Ozuygur warns that the queue length and waiting time should be assessed together when evaluating congestion. A short average wait doesn’t mean a port has a small queue, just as a long wait can happen when there are fewer vessels waiting. Therefore, shippers should take both indicators into account when evaluating the possible effect on their bookings.
Canceled sailings and rising spot rates mean higher costs
Planned sailings being canceled and carrier schedule changes are adding another layer of pressure to an already stressed market. These measures are pushing spot freight rates to double the average contract rates on some routes, contributing to congestion.
In September, carriers canceled only 6% of scheduled sailings from Asia to Europe and 8% of sailings from Asia to North America. The outlook is now for a sharp rise in cancelations with some 17% of scheduled sailings to Europe and 13% of those to North America expected to be canceled.
The loss of available capacity is supporting a sharp rise in spot prices. Freight rates from China to the US West Coast soared to $7,717 per FEU, more than twice the long-term contract rate of $3,649 per FEU.
The widening gap between spot and contract pricing is also helping to push contract rates higher, adding to the economic pain of shippers.
But Ozuygur cautions against putting the blame on port congestion alone. Terminal performance is important, but so are carrier decisions, reliability, and the ultimate cost of moving cargo.
“Shippers need to continue to assess carrier performance including schedule reliability, port rotations, unscheduled port calls and deliberate capacity reductions,” the analyst said. Operational decisions can be as big a factor in freight pricing and the downstream costs of a booking as port performance.
The fallout from summer typhoons continues to ripple through Asian export networks, with unreliable schedules, ongoing congestion and reduced sailing capacity leading to longer transit delays and rising freight costs as the fourth quarter begins.
