Freight’s cycle-ending forces are continuing to build, but Reliance Partners’ Chief Revenue Officer Thom Albrecht believes the current market could develop differently from the trucking cycles seen over the past two decades.
Nearly 360 trucking, freight brokerage and insurance professionals gathered at the Grand Hyatt Nashville for the 5th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar Series, the largest turnout yet for an event that welcomed 160 attendees in its first year. Across two days, discussions covered federal safety policy, cargo theft, credit risk and the future of freight brokerage. As in previous years, the conference opened with Albrecht’s detailed update on freight, capacity and the broader economy.
Albrecht divided his presentation into two sections. The first examined consumer and business conditions alongside the wider economy. The second, presented as “A Tale of Two Cities,” focused on the structural changes reshaping trucking capacity and why he believes the industry could be entering a freight cycle unlike anything seen in the past 20 years.
The economic picture remains mixed. Inflation-adjusted wages had recorded 35 consecutive months of gains following a difficult 25-month period of declines, before turning negative again in April and May of this year. Consumers therefore remain in the process of recovering lost purchasing power.
Category-level inflation presents an even more complicated picture than the approximately 3.5% headline CPI figure. At the time of the 5th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar, gasoline prices were up 26.7% year over year, despite falling nearly 10% in June alone. Lettuce and tomatoes were up 23.8%, while coffee prices increased 18.5%. At the same time, bacon, used vehicles and eggs were all lower year over year.
Savings rates, at close to 3% compared with a historical average above 8%, provide consumers with little financial cushion. Credit card delinquencies reaching 90 days had climbed back to 7.1%. That remains below the peak recorded during the Great Financial Crisis, but is considerably higher than the lows seen in early 2022.
Business demand, Albrecht noted, was not particularly strong, although it was better than in 2025. Customer inventories remained close to survey-history lows, creating a more favorable environment for freight generation as replenishment activity has been steadier this year than it was a year ago.
AI-related capital spending was another major factor. It represented nearly 70% of first-half 2026 GDP growth. When AI, technology and government spending are removed from the calculation, the rest of the economy contracted slightly in the first quarter and recorded only marginal growth in the second.
The housing market has remained “stuck” for almost four years. Existing home sales per 1,000 households had declined to approximately 26, compared with a range of 44 to 59 throughout the 2000s and 2010s. Affordability was consuming an estimated 43% of household disposable income, compared with a more affordable level of around 30%.
The conference’s “A Tale of Two Cities” theme, drawn from the famous Dickens line “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,” also reflected Albrecht’s assessment of trucking.
He argued that fraudulent and non-compliant carriers had been able to operate for years while compliant fleets absorbed the additional costs associated with following the rules.
His figures illustrated the disparity. Compliant carriers operate at approximately $2.38 per mile once insurance, payroll, drug testing, legal CDLs and properly maintained equipment are included. For carriers cutting those corners, the figure is approximately $1.65 per mile. That creates a potential cost advantage of as much as $6.5 million for a non-compliant 50-truck motor carrier compared with a compliant fleet of the same size.
Newly registered DOT numbers for for-hire, interstate, general freight carriers have also surged. The annual average increased from 9,760 between 2010 and 2019 to 36,658 between 2020 and 2025, with almost 60,000 new registrations recorded in 2025 alone.
Albrecht’s presentation identified several warning signs associated with fraudulent activity behind those figures. Carrier phone numbers such as 123-456-7890 and 867-5309, single addresses being used by hundreds of supposed trucking companies, and CDL mills advertising in multiple languages are among the recognizable patterns.
He also pointed to CDL schools that continue to advertise the possibility of obtaining a CDL without English proficiency. Several real examples remain visible online today.
Albrecht’s Thoughts on the Potential of a Trucking “Super Cycle”
During the motor carrier panel, Albrecht argued that the current freight cycle could depart from the pattern established by more recent cycles.
Freight cycles are generally characterized by sustained periods of rising rates followed by contraction. Albrecht defines a “super cycle” as a cycle lasting longer than two years in which pricing significantly outpaces CPI, potentially reaching double-digit levels. The industry has not crossed that threshold since the cycle running from mid-2003 through fall 2006.
The 2013-2014 and 2017-2018 cycles both faded after roughly 18 months. Each was associated with a single regulatory catalyst: a Hours of Service change in the first case and the ELD mandate in the second.
Even the recovery following the housing collapse lasted less than 20 months, although that period did not involve trucking regulatory changes.
Albrecht believes the current cycle could be different because it is not dependent on a single regulatory change. He also acknowledged the risks of declaring that “This time is different,” given the long history of similar predictions failing to materialize.
“Thus far there have been a handful of regulatory changes during this cycle, and more changes are expected, both as new regulations and also to tighten enforcement of existing regulations where ‘loopholes’ have been exploited. I look for more than a handful of NPRMs in the next couple of quarters,” Albrecht said.
NPRMs are Notices of Proposed Rulemakings issued through the FMCSA regulatory process.
Several changes have already affected the market, including English Language Proficiency enforcement, restrictions on non-domiciled CDLs and cabotage rules that are already in effect. A proficiency examination for new-entrant motor carriers is also progressing through the rulemaking process. On July 27, the FMCSA signaled that it was moving forward with rulemaking on a new-entrant proficiency exam.
The FMCSA has also announced the elimination of self-certification for CDL entities and ELDs. Nearly 8,000 CDL entities have already been removed from the system, while thousands more could potentially be eliminated.
According to Albrecht, approximately 6,000 entities were listed in the Training Provider Registry in 2019. By November 30, 2025, that figure had reached 39,554, and the number remains above 30,000 today.
ELDs are another area where Albrecht expects further changes.
“Simply announcing that third party certification will be required is insufficient,” Albrecht said, adding that he expects more details later this year or in early 2027 regarding how the certification process will work.
With approximately 1,000 ELDs in the United States compared with only 41 in Canada, Albrecht believes the eventual number of approved ELDs in the U.S. could fall to barely 30 once third-party certification is implemented.
The new-entrant process could also require more than simply obtaining a DOT number.
“Also, when I think about the new entrant spigot, a written exam to show proficiency around hours of service, hazmat driving, what to do in the event of a crash, selected maintenance issues, and other topics, would be an improvement over simply applying for and receiving a DOT number,” Albrecht said.
He also called for more extensive verification during the registration process.
“Aside from raising the price to obtain a DOT number and requiring more thorough verification of the identity of the new carrier, including authenticating the principal place of business, ownership, multiple DOT and MC numbers, etc.,” Albrecht said, “written exams would demonstrate some start-up knowledge that would obviously need to be accompanied by an onsite audit around the 1-year anniversary of a new motor carrier.”
But Albrecht believes these measures alone would not be enough to create a true super cycle.
“For a true super-cycle to occur, more needs to be done. If the FMCSA were to stop pursuing changes today, the cycle would be over by late 2027 or early 2028, meaning it would be like all the cycles since the last super cycle over 20 years ago,” he said.
“More needs to be done. Right now, we’re in a boat with numerous holes. We have to plug those holes to improve safety and compliance and to ensure a cycle that lasts more than two years.”
What Shippers and Carriers Are Watching
The conference’s motor carrier and shipper panels provided additional insight into the market conditions described in Albrecht’s presentation.
Fleet leaders from Christenson Transportation, Apex Transit Solutions, Crossett Inc., CB Freight and Excel Trucking described a freight market that is currently healthy but has historically tended to lose momentum after 18 to 20 months. The broader view among participants was that some of the capacity reductions occurring during this cycle could prove permanent.
Shippers represented on the panel included General Mills, Shaw Industries, Simmons Foods, Armada Supply Chain Solutions and KBX Logistics. They reported deteriorating service levels, with several companies actively rebuilding relationships with small and mid-sized carriers after relying heavily on mega-carrier capacity.
Several expect the gap between spot and contract rates to close by early 2027. Participants are also preparing for double-digit rate increases, although none of the panelists committed to a specific figure.
The conference also introduced a live Q&A with FMCSA Deputy Administrator Jesse Elison, giving attendees direct access to the agency responsible for the regulatory pipeline. Questions focused on enforcement priorities and the future direction of commercial motor vehicle safety policy.
Another new feature was a freight brokerage panel examining the consequences of the Montgomery Supreme Court ruling. Leaders from Backhaul Direct, FreightVana, Steam Logistics and Axle Logistics discussed the increasingly complex legal environment facing brokers.
Litigation panelists from The Sloan Firm and Scopelitis, Garvin, Light, Hanson & Feary noted that key elements of “safe carrier” case law remain unresolved. As a result, plaintiff attorneys have little incentive to exclude freight brokers from discovery.
Reliance Partners has now included shipper representatives at Trucking Matters for three consecutive years, distinguishing the event from industry gatherings that primarily bring together carriers and brokers.
The 6th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar Series is scheduled for July 14-15, 2027, once again at the Grand Hyatt Nashville.
