Global air freight rates posted a modest increase last week, with the latest figures from TAC Index showing continued strength ahead of the traditional peak season. At the same time, jet fuel prices have risen by more than double over the past year, adding fresh pressure to an already firm air cargo market.
The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00), calculated by TAC Index as the agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices, increased 0.9% over the seven days to September 21. The move left the index 20.9% above its level a year earlier.
Fuel costs have moved even more sharply. According to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, jet fuel prices were 116.5% higher year-on-year as of September 18. With fuel representing a major operating cost for air carriers, the latest increase adds to expectations that freight rates could face further upward pressure.
The busiest outbound lanes from China were firming again week-on-week towards Europe, although rates to the US eased slightly. Despite that movement, transpacific rates remain substantially higher year-on-year. TAC Index linked part of that development to lower volumes of small parcels heading to Europe following the end of the EU de minimis regime in July.
From Hong Kong, spot rates were broadly unchanged week-on-week. However, the wider Hong Kong outbound index (BAI30), which captures the full range of spot and forward contract volumes, gained 0.3% to stand 19.6% higher than a year earlier.
Shanghai followed a similar pattern. The outbound Shanghai index (BAI80) increased 0.6% week-on-week, bringing its year-on-year gain to 19.7%.
Across Southeast Asia, rates were generally higher on routes from Bangkok, Hanoi and Malaysia. Vietnam was an exception, with rates to Europe easing slightly.
East Asian markets also recorded mixed movements. Rates from Japan and Taiwan to Europe increased during the week, while those from Seoul declined slightly. On services to the US, rates from both Seoul and Taiwan were also a little lower. From India, rates increased week-on-week towards the US but were unchanged on routes to Europe.
European outbound markets moved in both directions. Transatlantic rates to the US declined overall following their recent gains, although routes from Amsterdam, Frankfurt and London did not follow that downward trend.
Rates from Europe also fell week-on-week on routes to India, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and the UAE. At the same time, further increases were recorded on routes to China and Australia.
Frankfurt stood out from the broader global upward trend. The outbound Frankfurt index (BAI20) fell 3.4% week-on-week, although it remained 21.1% above its level a year earlier.
London Heathrow moved in the opposite direction. The outbound London Heathrow index (BAI40) recovered from recent declines, rising exactly 10.0% week-on-week and leaving the index 11.4% higher year-on-year.
US outbound rates were mostly firmer again during the week. Increases were recorded on several major lanes, including services to Europe and China. However, rates declined towards South America and on certain other routes, including those to the UK and South Korea.
Chicago continued to show particularly strong year-on-year growth. The outbound Chicago index (BAI50) edged up another 1.0% week-on-week, leaving it approximately 45.7% above its level a year earlier. TAC Index noted that the comparison reflects the relatively low levels recorded last year, when standoffs over US tariffs and trade terms were weighing heavily on the market.
Elsewhere in North America, rates from Mexico to Europe fell sharply week-on-week, although they remained in positive territory compared with the same period last year.
The latest figures therefore point to a market that remains broadly firm, but highly uneven across regions and trade lanes. With air freight rates still elevated year-on-year and jet fuel costs up 116.5%, operating cost pressures could remain an important factor as the industry moves deeper into the peak-season period.
