By Maria Kalamatas | May 7, 2025
Doha, QATAR —
The global air cargo sector, once buoyed by post-pandemic recovery, is now facing a reality check. With jet fuel prices climbing and environmental regulations tightening, 2025 is forcing freight carriers into a phase of recalibration—where efficiency meets emissions control.
“Every ton we move now has to justify both its cost and its carbon,” said Ali Nasser, VP of Cargo at Middle East SkyFreight. “This is not the time for complacency—it’s a year of accountability.”
Jet fuel pressure builds across key lanes
Between February and April 2025, global jet fuel costs rose by 17%, driven by a mix of OPEC production limits and supply risks in the Red Sea. This has placed considerable pressure on long-haul carriers, particularly those operating high-volume Asia–Europe and Middle East–U.S. routes.
While the pharma and electronics sectors have helped sustain yields, the overall margin pressure is palpable.
“Operators are cutting dead weight—figuratively and literally,” Nasser added. “We’re redesigning routes week by week.”
Regulation takes the front seat
In July 2025, the European Union’s SAF mandate takes effect, requiring all cargo flights entering EU airspace to burn a minimum 8% Sustainable Aviation Fuel. That percentage is set to rise to 14% in 2026, with added scrutiny under EU Fit for 55 policies.
For many carriers, compliance is no longer a branding exercise—it’s a ticket to operate.
“We’ve moved beyond greenwashing,” said Julia Marek, Sustainability Director at AeroLogica. “Shippers are now asking to see verified carbon savings before they sign contracts.”
Fragmented capacity, focused investments
Passenger recovery remains uneven. On transatlantic routes, bellyhold capacity sits at just under 80% of pre-pandemic levels, while Asia–Pacific lanes have largely normalized. This imbalance is driving forwarders to reserve dedicated freighters—especially on “green corridors” built around SAF availability and carbon offset infrastructure.
Companies like Hellmann and CEVA Logistics are experimenting with ESG-compliant offerings, marketing both carbon transparency and guaranteed lift.
“We’re seeing a split between volume shippers and ESG-first clients,” Marek noted.
A divided market emerges
Analysts agree that air cargo volumes will hold steady in 2025, thanks to demand for semiconductors, perishable goods, and medical shipments. But the market itself is diverging: low-cost, rate-driven players on one side; sustainability-certified, value-added networks on the other.
“You’ll see the same plane flying two different strategies,” said Christophe Legrand, Lead Analyst at SkyChain Research. “That’s the air cargo equation in 2025—speed, yes, but with scrutiny.”
