By Eva Richardson | March 26, 2025 | The Logistic News
Kuehne+Nagel (K+N) has laid out a confident vision for air cargo growth over the next three years, supported by resilient demand, structural supply constraints, and a targeted investment strategy focused on high-value sectors.
Speaking during the company’s Capital Markets Day, Yngve Ruud, Executive Vice President of Air Logistics, forecast that the global air cargo market—excluding e-commerce—will grow by 3% annually between 2025 and 2028, outpacing projected freighter fleet growth of just 1%.
Ruud emphasized that this growth will be driven primarily by aerospace, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, data centres, and perishable goods—segments where K+N already has an established presence.
“Trends such as a growing world population are expected to drive demand for perishables,” Ruud explained. “Meanwhile, the aerospace industry will expand alongside the recovery in global travel, and investments in semiconductor equipment are forecast to grow at 8–9% CAGR from 2025 to 2028.”
Additionally, logistics for data and server centres is expected to surge, bolstered by a 22% projected increase in global public cloud spending in 2025, largely tied to the explosive rise of AI-driven technologies.
Volatility as a Growth Catalyst
Kuehne+Nagel also anticipates continued volatility in trade patterns—fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, tariff realignments, and regional sourcing shifts—will enhance the need for reliable and fast airfreight options.
“Clients are looking for flexible supply chain solutions that can withstand shocks,” Ruud said. “Air cargo remains essential to that equation.”
Tightening Capacity and Ageing Fleets
On the supply side, K+N projects freighter capacity will remain tight, as ageing widebody aircraft are retired faster than new ones are delivered.
Ruud cited data showing that 17% of the global freighter fleet will be over 30 years old by 2025, up from 8% in 2018. Aircraft retirement is expected to accelerate from 4% to 5–6% annually, contributing to a widening supply gap.
“New aircraft delivery constraints are real,” he added. “As a result, the widebody freighter fleet is projected to grow only 1% per year through 2028, limiting global freight capacity even as demand rises.”
Charter Network and Gateway Expansion
To proactively address this imbalance, Kuehne+Nagel is expanding its controlled charter network, which has grown from 13 weekly charter flights in 2019 to 100 in 2025. The company is also scaling up its global gateways, having added three new locations last year, with eight more expected this year and another four planned post-2025.
These moves will allow K+N to offer more tailored solutions and respond to regional trade shifts, including nearshoring trends and corridor diversification.
Competitive Positioning: Ready to Reclaim No.1
K+N also addressed the potential loss of its position as the world’s largest airfreight forwarder, should DSV’s takeover of DB Schenker proceed. However, Ruud reaffirmed the company’s determination to regain leadership through sector-focused growth, organic expansion, and bolt-on acquisitions.
“Scale matters,” Ruud said. “We reached the top in 2021 through smart investment. If we’re briefly overtaken, we’re confident we’ll reclaim that position.”
K+N’s strategy focuses on high-growth verticals including aerospace, semiconductors, healthcare, and perishables, supported by advanced digital tools and human capital investments.
Analyst View: A Realistic but Positive Outlook
Investment bank Jefferies responded positively to the presentation, noting that Kuehne+Nagel has shifted toward more achievable growth targets, a move welcomed by the market.
“Management has clearly acknowledged that past goals were overly ambitious,” Jefferies stated in its investor note. “The new targets are grounded in operational realities, and the focus on securing long-term air capacity reflects a bullish, but pragmatic, view of the market.”
Jefferies also reiterated its belief that airfreight will outperform seafreight in 2025, driven by higher service expectations and faster delivery cycles, with K+N positioned to capitalize on the trend.
Conclusion
With a realistic yet ambitious strategy, Kuehne+Nagel is betting big on air logistics as a growth engine in an uncertain global trade environment. Backed by sectoral investment, a growing charter network, and strategic foresight, the company is preparing to lead the next wave of airfreight evolution, whether or not it temporarily cedes the top spot.
