Tanker owners say VLCC newbuilding ordering has reached an all-time high this year as charter earnings have hit unprecedented levels. But Veson Nautical said it is unlikely the pace of contracting at such an exceptional rate can continue as shipyards fill up and shortages of key equipment emerge.
The VLCC orderbook has increased 358% year-to-date against 2025, according to Veson Nautical. The scale of the increase is particularly apparent when compared to the existing fleet. By September 2025, newly built vessels already made up 15% of the VLCC fleet in operation. That ratio increased to 38% by September 2026.
“The rapid acceleration was driven by a rare fleet replacement opportunity,” said Matthew Freeman, VP Valuation & Analytics at Veson Nautical.
One year ago, the orderbook for VLCCs was 15% of the existing fleet and the orderbook for Suezmaxes was 22%. At the same time some 18% of the large tanker fleet had been sanctioned.
The net orderbook being broadly equivalent to the number of sanctioned vessels also gave owners the chance to renew and upgrade their fleet. That momentum helped spawn a wave of new building contracts.
Freeman said the current numbers are “very high” at a briefing in Singapore, but he does not expect the orderbook to grow at the same rate going forward.
The main constraint is shipyard capacity. “The big yards in Japan, South Korea and China are now working at near capacity and delivery slots are essentially booked up to 2030,” says Freeman.
And even if a building slot were to be secured before 2030, this would not necessarily mean an owner would be able to proceed with another VLCC order. Freeman also cited shortages of critical equipment, such as piping systems and engines, needed to complete additional new buildings.
Meanwhile, the super-strong tanker market is pushing asset values sharply higher.
VLCC spot earnings on the Arabian Gulf-China route have exceeded $1 million per day, while one-year charter rates have jumped 176% year-on-year to $135,124 per day.
The secondhand and resale values are also reflecting the market strength. Veson Nautical says five-year-old VLCCs are the most overvalued asset in the tracked portfolio of assets, at values currently 133% above median levels for the 1992-2026 period.
Prices for the resale of newbuilding contracts have also soared, to as much as $200 million in recent weeks.
“We’ve got supercharged earnings, we’ve got high asset values and we’ve got limited shipyard availability, and that’s created an environment that’s difficult to compare with past tanker cycles,” said Freeman.
“This is really uncharted territory,” he said.
