Ocean freight rates on key trans-Pacific routes are holding at elevated levels as the market heads into what could become a more active peak season, according to the latest market data and analysis.
With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, shipping conditions remain influenced by broader geopolitical disruption, while fuel costs and constrained capacity continue to set a higher baseline for pricing across major trade lanes.
Freightos analyst Judah Levine noted that benchmark rates between Asia and the United States have increased by around $1,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) since the start of the Iran conflict in late February, with further upward movement likely as seasonal demand builds.
He reported that last week pricing remained broadly stable at around $2,800 per FEU for West Coast shipments and $4,300 per FEU for East Coast routes, although daily spot rates have already begun to trend higher following mid-month increases.
“There is a possibility, though less likely, that the trans-Pacific peak season is also starting already,” Levine wrote, suggesting early signs of demand acceleration may already be emerging on some lanes.
However, he also cautioned that year-on-year comparisons remain unreliable due to earlier tariff-driven frontloading and irregular demand patterns that disrupted typical seasonal flows.
According to the National Retail Federation, the official peak season is expected to begin in July, meaning demand could still be on the verge of a more traditional seasonal uplift.
“If there is no demand bump yet, it will remain to be seen if carriers have removed enough capacity to support the current price increases until volumes pick up,” Levine added.
For now, the market remains in a delicate balance: rates are supported by tight capacity and higher operating costs, while the next major test will come once peak-season volumes fully enter the system.
