The shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is nearing its 100th day with no sign of resolution, as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified sharply over the past 24 hours, further destabilising one of the world’s most critical trade routes.
The latest escalation began overnight after US forces reportedly targeted Iranian positions in Bandar Abbas following an incident involving four Iranian drones approaching a US tanker attempting to leave the Gulf with its AIS system switched off.
Iran responded by launching multiple drones and ballistic missiles toward Kuwait, deepening fears that the conflict is moving into a broader regional phase with direct implications for commercial shipping and energy markets.
At least four commercial vessels were reportedly forced to reverse course while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz amid the deteriorating security environment.
Martin Kelly, from maritime security company EOS, warned that despite ongoing speculation around a possible ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough, the operational risk for shipping remains unchanged — and is arguably worsening.
“Despite the imminence of an imminent ceasefire, memorandum of understanding, peace deal or any other term suggesting progress, the situation between the US and Iran is deteriorating and the threat to shipping remains extremely high,” Kelly said in a security update shared on LinkedIn.
Kelly noted that since the previous ceasefire agreement announced on April 8, US forces have carried out several strikes on Iranian targets in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jasm, while Iran has launched attacks against US naval assets, Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as commercial vessels operating in the region.
According to Kelly, the threshold for what is now considered a ceasefire violation has shifted dramatically, with attacks on commercial shipping and regional infrastructure no longer appearing sufficient to trigger a collapse of negotiations.
“The key takeaway is that Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is unlikely to surrender that control,” he said.
In another major development, Washington added the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) — the Iranian body responsible for coordinating transit permissions through Hormuz — to the OFAC sanctions list, linking it to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The decision has created a major legal and operational dilemma for shipowners and operators. Transit without PGSA coordination could expose vessels to Iranian interception, while direct engagement with the authority may now violate US sanctions regulations.
Iranian officials have also suggested that future shipping procedures in the strait will fundamentally change even if the conflict eventually de-escalates.
Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, said any post-war arrangement would differ entirely from previous transit systems.
“Shipping procedures in the Strait of Hormuz after the war will be completely different from the procedures that existed before the conflict,” he stated during a security conference in Moscow.
Hopes for a rapid diplomatic breakthrough weakened further after US President Donald Trump publicly rejected Iranian state media reports suggesting that Tehran and Oman were nearing an agreement to restore commercial shipping under joint Iranian-Omani oversight.
“Nobody’s going to control it,” Trump said regarding the strait. “It’s international waters.”
Within shipping markets, growing uncertainty is making commercial assessments increasingly difficult. Norwegian broker Fearnleys described the situation surrounding a possible reopening deal as “all mouth and no trousers,” pointing to the lack of reliable market transparency.
BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global oil inventories could fall to critical levels by the end of September, significantly increasing pressure on energy markets and global supply chains.
Amid the escalating crisis, one positive development emerged this week as ten Indian seafarers detained in Iran since July 2025 were released following diplomatic negotiations.
The crew members had been arrested aboard the product tanker Harbour Phoenix near Jask Port. India’s Directorate General of Shipping confirmed that the seafarers had now been safely released and preparations were underway for their return home.
