Drewry is challenging the view that the increasing levels of congestion at ports around the world are primarily caused by a lack of investment in terminal capacity.
The assessment by the shipping consultancy follows Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc’s argument earlier this month that port capacity is failing to keep pace with rising Asian export volumes, leading to congestion in several regions including Europe, the east coast of South America, West Africa and the Middle East.
Clerc, cited by the Financial Times, also highlighted the long period of underinvestment in terminal capacity since the financial crisis, saying investment had lagged for some 15 years while trade growth and imbalances kept rising.
Drewry’s latest Market Signals risk summary paints a more complex picture. The consultancy has noted average port waiting times and schedule reliability worsening as disruptions to shipping lines and shippers across the market continue.
Drewry’s Ports and Terminals Insight showed that ships were waiting an average of 3.6 days for a berth during week 32, in early August, as typhoons hitting China threw port operations into disarray.
Ports originating in Asia are increasingly being disrupted by weather, especially this year. The current El Niño has been described by Insurance Journal as possibly becoming one of the most intense of record.
Tropical Storm Saudel is also expected to impact the region from Ningbo to Fuzhou with winds up to 95 mph on Saturday. Shanghai, which is on the outer edge of the storm, will also face operational disruption.
Drewry acknowledges the impact of bad weather on port operations, but says it is only one part of the congestion problem. Tariff disruptions, geopolitical tensions and port strikes have also contributed to worsening congestion levels since the pandemic.
The consultancy additionally emphasizes the growing impact of larger ships. The larger the ship, the larger the volume peaks when they arrive at terminals. Operators have less and less spare capacity at their hands, to recover from unexpected disruptions.
The variation in terminal utilization can have a significant impact on the recovery times. A terminal operating at 90% capacity may take about a week to recover from a single day of disruption. If the plant runs at 75% capacity, the same interruption can be absorbed in about two days.
“The difference in those levels of utilization, in normal years, can make the difference between a terminal generating a competitive return on capital or an uncompetitive return,” Drewry said.
Results can also be seen in vessel delays across several key areas. Recent forecasts from shipping lines show full-year income forecasts have been revised upwards, partly because of cancelations of capacity, blanked sailings and port congestion. Some key markets have seen big rises in vessel delays.
The worst deterioration has been in West Africa, where average delays have increased from around 50 hours in 2025 to more than 70 hours. South Asia is also approaching an average of 60 hours, continuing a steady increase from around 35 hours in 2023.
For China, average delays have risen from below 30 hours to about 35 hours, roughly in line with the global average.
Disruption in the Middle East and bad weather also contributed to an increase in its Intra-Asia index, Drewry said. The index has moved from under $1,000 per FEU at the beginning of August to $1,200 per FEU in its latest reading. There have also been sharp rises in spot rates from Shanghai to Singapore and India.
At the same time, demand in the European and US markets seems to be softening after what is looking more and more like an early peak season. Therefore, Drewry’s World Container Index has lost some momentum, down 1%.
European spot rates saw the biggest weekly fall, down 3%. Shanghai-New York rates dropped 2% while rates to Los Angeles from Shanghai were steady.
