The future of two major North Sea oil and gas developments, Rosebank and Jackdaw, has reached a critical stage, with Equinor chief executive Anders Opedal warning that the UK could risk becoming “uninvestable” if the projects do not receive the go-ahead from the government.
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Tuesday, Opedal stressed that the decision will have consequences well beyond the individual fields and could influence how international investors assess the UK’s energy sector.
Located around 80 miles northwest of Shetland, Rosebank is expected to begin production next year. It is considered the UK’s largest untapped oil and gas reserve, with estimated resources of around 500 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Jackdaw, meanwhile, lies approximately 140 miles east of Aberdeen and was originally expected to begin production late this year. Once operational, the gas field could potentially supply more than 6% of the UK’s forecast gas demand in the future.
Both developments are operated by Adura, a joint venture between Equinor and Shell. Aberdeen-based independent producer Ithaca Energy holds a 20% stake in Rosebank.
Questioned by the BBC after his appearance at the forum, Opedal said he must be able to demonstrate to Equinor’s stakeholders that investment in the North Sea remains commercially viable throughout the future life of projects.
If the UK ultimately decides against allowing further drilling, he warned, the question for investors would become whether the country remains an attractive place to invest in the future.
“The question will be: is the UK investable in the future. I hope it will not come to that,” Opedal said.
The Equinor chief also argued that the energy transition must remain balanced. Renewable sources, he said, do not yet provide the consistent, round-the-clock supply required to meet energy needs. A strategic mix of energy sources is therefore necessary, with hydrocarbons continuing to play a role for some time regardless of the direction of the transition.
The political background makes the situation particularly sensitive. The UK’s Labour Party had pledged before winning the election that development of Rosebank and Jackdaw would be blocked. Now in government, however, Labour is confronting the wider economic and energy-security implications of such a decision.
Analysts have warned that cancelling or preventing the two projects could accelerate the decline of the North Sea energy basin. Other developers could increasingly choose projects elsewhere where investment conditions are considered easier and the regulatory environment more stable.
The consequences could be particularly significant for Aberdeen, a city with around half a century of experience in oil and gas development and previously described as the European Capital of Energy. Aberdeen accounts for approximately 80% of UK energy jobs.
At the same time, the city has been building a broader energy portfolio. Aberdeen is a major centre for offshore wind development, supporting the ScotWind programme, the North Sea decarbonisation initiative INTOG, the Hywind Pilot Park and the Kincardine Floating Offshore Wind Farm.
The city is also developing its position in hydrogen. The Aberdeen Hydrogen Hub is being developed as a joint venture with BP, while carbon capture, utilisation and storage projects are also progressing in the region.
Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen & Grampian, said Opedal’s warning should be taken extremely seriously by the UK Government.
“When the chief executive of one of the world’s biggest energy companies warns that Britain risks becoming ‘uninvestable’, the UK Government should be extremely worried,” he said.
Borthwick argued that rejecting Rosebank or Jackdaw would send a damaging signal to international investors, particularly those that have already committed substantial sums, obtained approvals and invested in infrastructure.
In his view, changing the rules after those commitments have been made could undermine confidence in the UK’s investment environment.
The potential impact would also extend beyond Aberdeen, Borthwick said, with the loss of jobs, investment and tax revenues, as well as increased dependence on imported energy at a time when energy security has become a major strategic concern.
He also highlighted what he sees as a fundamental contradiction in the current debate: Britain is expected to continue relying on oil and gas for decades, yet the country could reject investment in its own resources while spending billions importing the same products from overseas.
“Rosebank and Jackdaw have become a test of whether Britain is genuinely serious about economic growth, ene
