Booking constraints and delays hit Trans-Pacific trade
In the weeks ahead, shippers moving cargo between Asia and North America will find it increasingly difficult to get vessel space. Meanwhile, reduced schedule reliability on key east-west shipping routes is raising concerns about delivery commitments and supply chain planning.
The trans-Pacific trade is most exposed to tighter capacity as carriers reduce the number of vessels they plan to place on the routes, according to WiseTech Global’s Ocean Freight Risk Outlook for October. Although space is relatively open on Asia–Europe and Europe–North America lanes, a booking is no guaranty of on-time arrival of cargo.
WiseTech expects the booking environment to become more difficult on the Asia-North America corridor later in its four-week forecast. The expected tightening is largely due to reduced planned carrier capacity, rather than an increase in demand. Its booking security risk indicator is also expected to increase and stay well above its historical average, suggesting increased difficulty in obtaining space on preferred sailings.
The outlook considers a range of factors including forecast demand, planned carrier capacity, booking response, shipment arrival performance and port operating conditions. It measures reliability as the percent of shipments arriving at their discharge ports on or before the promised arrival dates by carriers.
Pacific Reliability Continues to Deteriorate
September saw a major decline in schedule performance on Asia – North America services. Arrivals on time fell to 26.9% from 33.9% in August, a seven percentage point drop. The latest weekly figure showed little improvement at 26.8%. Delays of eight days or more continued to be the largest arrival-outcome category.
The company cited continued disruption at Asian ports that compounded pressure on waterside operations and caused vessel delays. These disruptions effectively diminished the capacity available to trans-Pacific shippers.
China’s Golden Week holiday is introducing a new layer of uncertainty, impacting both output and cargo flows. Consequently, even if demand eases later, the report warned, the availability of bookings and reliability of schedules may not be immediately restored.
Published schedules suggest transit times in the forecast period of 26.2 to 27.6 days, which is below the recent baseline of 28 days. But WiseTech cautioned that even with these relatively shorter scheduled trips, poor actual performance continues to be a challenge in predicting arrival dates.
Forwarders and beneficial cargo owners are encouraged to make early bookings against their contracted allocations to minimize exposure to delays and to build in extra time in delivery commitments. WiseTech also suggests looking at how individual carriers perform when choosing services, since its analysis found significant differences in both reliability and the risk of booking acceptance among the trade’s 10 largest carriers.
Asia–Europe Services Record a Sharp Drop in On-Time Arrivals
Asia–Europe shipping experienced an even steeper decline in schedule reliability. On-time performance dropped to just 9.9% in September, down from 22.9% in August. The latest weekly reading recovered slightly to 11.5%, but the improvement remained limited: shipments delayed by eight days or more accounted for 45.5% of weekly volume.
Unlike the trans-Pacific corridor, Asia–Europe is not expected to face an overall capacity shortage during the outlook period. Planned vessel supply remains above projected demand, while the booking security risk indicator is forecast to stay well below its historical average.
Some capacity tightening is nevertheless anticipated towards the end of the forecast window, as carriers reduce planned supply. The change is not expected to result from stronger demand.
For shippers on this route, the main challenge is therefore less about finding vessel space and more about ensuring that cargo reaches its destination within the expected timeframe.
WiseTech stressed that shorter published schedules should not be interpreted as evidence of improving service reliability, given the substantial delays recorded in recent arrival data. Planned transit times are forecast to range from 37.8 to 39.9 days, compared with a recent baseline of 40.7 days.
The report identified congestion at Asian ports and changes in routing between the Suez Canal–Red Sea corridor and alternative routes around Africa as possible sources of wider network disruption. These operational challenges continue to affect schedule performance across the trade.
Carrier selection also offers limited protection against delays. Even the better-performing operators have recorded weak recent on-time results, according to WiseTech, making it difficult for shippers to eliminate disruption simply by switching carriers.
North America–Europe Keeps Capacity Available Despite Reliability Problems
The trans-Atlantic market is relatively better off in terms of the outlook for bookings available. The forecast demand is expected to be lower than the planned capacity over the four week period and the booking security risk should be lower than its historical average.
Higher planned capacity and softer demand are expected to support booking conditions in the near-term. There could be some tightening later as carriers pull back on planned capacity but the route is not expected to see the same level of capacity pressure as the trans-Pacific trade.
But at the same time, reliability of service has weakened. On-time performance for the month fell to 39.2% in September, from 42.8% in August. The latest weekly figure was 38.6%, with on-time arrivals continuing to be the single largest arrival outcome category.
Carrier differences may be a significant factor in deciding how to ship. WiseTech’s data shows that on-time performance in September was between 14% and 61%, depending on the operator.
Transit times scheduled are pretty much what has been expected recently. The forecast period is expected to see them at 17.7 to 19.5 days, compared to a recent baseline of 19.1 days.
This means that vessel space availability does provide some flexibility, but carrier-level performance continues to be a key consideration when planning deliveries for businesses shipping between Europe and North America.
Reliability becomes a Key Factor in Shipping Decisions
According to WiseTech Global’s October outlook, there are three different challenges across the major east-west trades. Capacity is set to fall across the trans-Pacific, which will make it more difficult to book, while ongoing operational disruption continues to undermine delivery reliability. Vessel space on Asia–Europe services is still relatively available, but severe delays are the key issue in schedule execution. The trans-Atlantic market is more comfortable about capacity, though reliability is still patchy and varies sharply between carriers.
The findings underscore the need for beneficial cargo owners and other supply chain stakeholders and freight forwarders to book early where capacity is tightening, to allow for extra delivery time and to assess carrier performance beyond published transit schedules.
As the forecast window develops, the dichotomy of capacity availability versus actual service reliability will stay the core of global container shipping network shipment risk management.
