For years, China-Europe e-commerce air cargo relied on a straightforward economic model: millions of relatively low-value parcels could travel rapidly from Asian sellers to European consumers, with shipments worth less than €150 generally escaping customs duty.
That model changed on July 1, 2026, when the European Union introduced a temporary €3 customs duty on low-value parcels imported directly from outside the bloc. The measure applies to goods valued at €150 or less and is calculated according to customs classification rather than simply treating every parcel as a single item.
Within weeks, the first effects were already visible across the air cargo network.
At Liège Airport, one of Europe’s principal e-commerce gateways, low-value parcel activity dropped sharply in July even as the airport recorded higher overall cargo tonnage. Frankfurt Airport experienced a similar divergence: China-origin tonnage declined, while total cargo volumes continued to increase.
Together, the two airports illustrate the complexity of the first month under the new regime. The EU measure is clearly disrupting direct e-commerce flows, but its impact on the wider air freight market is far less straightforward.
The key question is therefore no longer simply how many parcels have disappeared. The more important issue is where the underlying consumer demand—and the freight required to serve it, is now moving.
The first shock: low-value parcels fall
The clearest evidence comes from the Liège-Bierset customs zone.
The number of e-commerce parcels fell 24% in July compared with July 2025 and 41% compared with June 2026. The number of declarations in June 2026 was also down 52% compared with July 2025 and 67% compared with June 2026.
B2C shipments valued below €150 declined sharply following the introduction of the new EU rules.
At the same time, parcels valued above €150 increased by 10%, according to an official post from Liège Airport. The shift suggests that operators are already adapting their shipment profiles as the economics of very low-value direct-to-consumer deliveries change.
The figures broadly correspond with the wider market reaction tracked by Rotate. Its Live Capacity and Air Demand data showed that e-commerce imports into Europe fell 24% in July compared with June, while direct China/Hong Kong-to-Europe freighter capacity subsequently settled at approximately 28% below June levels.
The decline has not been evenly distributed across European and Asian gateways.
Between Rotate’s June reference period and August, capacity fell 58% at Budapest, 35% at Liège and 78% at Madrid. On the Asian side, capacity declined 72% at Ürümqi and 28% at Hong Kong.
Most of the capacity removed from China-Europe routes has not yet been redeployed elsewhere, according to Rotate’s Head of Consulting, Tim van Leeuwen. He said the reduction in available cargo demand was weighing on global freighter utilisation, with converted B747-400Fs particularly affected.
The early evidence therefore points towards an air cargo network responding to a genuine demand shock rather than simply experiencing a short-lived decline in parcel activity.
Yet Liège’s wider cargo performance provides an important counterpoint.
Overall tonnage at the airport increased 4% year-on-year in July 2026, despite aircraft movements declining by 4%. That indicates greater utilisation of the available capacity.
Pharmaceuticals, data centre equipment and flowers helped sustain activity, while continued investment in cold-chain infrastructure strengthened Liège’s position in high-value and temperature-sensitive freight.
The figures highlight the airport’s diversified cargo base and demonstrate why a fall in e-commerce parcels has not automatically translated into lower overall cargo tonnage.
The distinction becomes even more apparent at Frankfurt.
Frankfurt feels the China slowdown but not across the board
At Frankfurt Airport, one of Europe’s major gateways for China-Europe trade, the new regime is already having an impact on China-origin cargo.
“We are currently experiencing a moderate decline in tonnage from China. Since early July, tonnage has declined at an accelerated rate, with volumes from China down 16.5% in July,” said Joachim von Winning, Director Cargo Partnerships at Fraport AG.
But the decline did not result in an overall contraction in Frankfurt’s cargo activity.
Tonnage to China increased 10.5% in July, while Frankfurt’s total cargo volumes grew 0.9%.
Fraport continues to position e-commerce as part of a broader and diversified cargo portfolio.
“E-commerce remains an important growth area for us, and we are actively participating in this market,” Winning added.
However, July’s figures cannot be attributed entirely to the EU’s €3 import processing charge.
The decline in China’s low-value exports to Europe had already started earlier in the year. Frederic Horst, Managing Director of Trade and Transport Group, said Chinese e-commerce export data showed a 54% year-on-year decline in July. He also stressed that low-value and e-commerce exports to the EU had already been in negative territory since December 2025.
“We are currently experiencing a moderate decline in tonnage from China. Since early July, tonnage has declined at an accelerated rate, with volumes from China down 16.5% in July.”
Joachim von Winning, Fraport AG
The new policy nevertheless adds another layer of cost and administrative complexity to a business model built around millions of small individual transactions.
Platforms such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress have been major generators of direct China-Europe shipments. Their logistics strategies, however, are increasingly moving towards European inventory.
“They are in the process of changing to more localised inventory. We think it will lead to a shift from air to ocean,” Horst said.
That change could ultimately prove more significant than the initial reduction in airfreight volumes.
Instead of moving thousands of individual customer orders from China to Europe by air, platforms can import larger consolidated consignments, potentially using ocean freight, and place those products in regional warehouses before they are delivered to consumers.
From direct parcels to European inventory
The transition is already visible in air cargo data.
Lawrence Tse, Head of E-commerce at Menzies Aviation, said China- and Hong Kong-to-Europe air cargo tonnage fell approximately 9% month-on-month in July. Hong Kong, which has a particularly strong e-commerce mix, recorded a decline of around 19% compared with June.
“The immediate impact has been a moderation in some China-Europe e-commerce flows rather than a structural decline in demand,” Tse said.
The major change, according to Tse, is occurring further up the supply chain.
“Since 1 July, the most notable shift has been in fulfilment and supply chain strategies rather than demand. While the products being purchased have remained largely unchanged, e-commerce platforms are increasingly evaluating different ways to serve European customers, including direct cross-border airfreight against bulk importation, regional fulfilment and local inventory models.”
As companies adjust to the new customs environment, routing and fulfilment patterns are expected to continue evolving.
“Chinese e-commerce export data shows a drop of 54% in July compared to 2025. However, it is worth noting that low-value and e-commerce exports to the EU have already been in negative territory since December 2025.”
Frederic Horst, Trade and Transport Group
The distinction is important. A decline in direct China-Europe parcel movements does not necessarily mean that European consumers have stopped purchasing the products concerned.
Instead, the same demand can increasingly be served from inventory that has already been positioned inside Europe.
Customs data becomes part of the cargo operation
The new environment is also changing what happens before freight reaches an airport.
Greater emphasis is now being placed on product-level information, customs classification and duty processing.
“The new regulatory framework places greater emphasis on accurate product-level data, classification and duty processing, increasing the importance of pre-arrival data validation and customs readiness,” Tse said.
For e-commerce operators, a consolidated shipment can contain thousands of individual products and customs declarations. Accurate product descriptions, classifications and electronic records are therefore becoming increasingly important.
“The EU will make Product Identifiers mandatory from November 1, 2026, which should further strengthen traceability and product-compliance controls,” Tse added.
That development will push airports further into the customs process.
Fraport is already working with customs authorities on e-commerce procedures.
“In collaboration with customs authorities, we have established standardised processes for e-commerce shipments to ensure reliable handling in compliance with applicable requirements,” Winning said.
The emerging picture is therefore not one of e-commerce disappearing from air cargo. Instead, it is a question of where, how and when those goods enter Europe.
The €3 duty applies per HS code per parcel, while the upcoming €2 e-commerce processing fee from November will apply per parcel.
Moving customs upstream
For Tse, a major objective is to move as much customs processing as possible upstream, before the aircraft arrives.
That requires advance cargo data, API connectivity, automated scanning and sorting, real-time shipment visibility, accurate product-level information and closer integration among airlines, handling companies, customs authorities and final-mile operators.
[IMAGE — DHL Central Asia hub in Hong Kong]
“By the time cargo arrives at the airport, customs authorities and handling partners should already have the information needed to assess risk and, where possible, pre-clear the shipment.”
The implications extend well beyond customs departments.
Under the previous e-commerce model, speed and available cargo capacity were among the principal competitive advantages. Under the new regime, data quality and customs readiness are becoming equally important parts of the air cargo proposition.
Fraport’s von Winning said the airport is also working with international partners to improve e-commerce processes.
“We also maintain regular, in-depth exchanges with airports and market partners worldwide to continuously improve our processes and support the seamless flow of e-commerce. Our recent partnership with PVG is one example of this approach,” he said.
In November 2025, Frankfurt Airport and Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG) formalised a strategic cargo partnership aimed at streamlining processes, strengthening cooperation and pursuing new market opportunities.
The objective is not necessarily to preserve the previous e-commerce model unchanged. Instead, airports are positioning themselves to handle whichever fulfilment model ultimately emerges.
What consumers buy has not changed much yet
Despite the decline in direct shipments, there is little evidence that the underlying product mix has fundamentally changed.
Tse said China remained the dominant origin for EU low-value imports, accounting for approximately 93% of low-value import items by volume in 2025.
Hong Kong remains a major e-commerce air cargo gateway, while Vietnam, Thailand and other Asian origins are expanding from a much smaller base.
Fashion and accessories, consumer electronics and accessories, beauty and personal care products, household goods and other lightweight consumer products continue to dominate the trade.
“The more notable shift has been in fulfilment and supply chain strategies rather than demand,” Tse said.
That distinction will be essential when interpreting future cargo statistics.
A fall in China-origin e-commerce parcels does not necessarily indicate that European consumers have stopped buying those products. Some of that demand may simply be supplied from goods already stored within Europe.
The result could be less direct China-Europe parcel traffic, but more inbound inventory, warehousing and domestic distribution.
The US provides a possible but imperfect precedent
Other markets offer some clues about how changes to de minimis regimes can reshape air cargo.
Rotate compared Europe with Brazil and the US, where comparable policy changes were followed by a recovery in e-commerce imports within 12 months.
Europe, however, has only one month of post-policy demand data, making any long-term conclusion premature.
Horst also pointed to the US as an example of how a reduction in direct e-commerce imports can eventually coincide with stronger conventional airfreight in selected categories.
“It’s not evident in the data yet, but if we look at what happened in the US following the end of the de minimis exemption in May 2025 then general airfreight in some key categories increased,” he said.
He added that during the first seven months of 2026, the US imported 27,000 tonnes more clothing and apparel products than during the same period a year earlier.
The comparison does not mean Europe will necessarily follow the same trajectory. It does, however, demonstrate why a decline in low-value parcel traffic should not automatically be interpreted as the disappearance of the underlying trade.
General cargo could become the beneficiary
There are already early indications that some of the displaced e-commerce activity could move towards more conventional freight models.
Murat Odabas, Managing Director of GlobeCross, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lufthansa Cargo created through the merger of heyworld and CB Customs Broker, combines cross-border e-commerce logistics with customs expertise.
He said the China-Europe e-commerce market is moving away from direct B2C parcel flows towards more consolidated freight movements and local inventory.
“The volume of B2C e-commerce imports from China dropped sharply in the week following July 1, 2026. Consequently, freight capacities were reduced, while remaining volumes remain highly volatile and are primarily handled via hard blocks or ad-hoc capacity,” Odabas said.
He also described a broader change taking place across the supply chain.
“In parallel, we are also observing a shift toward general cargo imports accompanied by the buildup of local warehousing capacities.”
Initial efforts simply to rename the previous direct-import model have not succeeded, according to Odabas.
“In our assessment, the questionable B2B2C scheme—where pre-labelled parcels are shipped based on private end-customer orders—is not occurring, not least because it lacks any legal foundation.”
Whether such disguised B2B2C imports are moving through other European hubs remains unclear.
For European airports and airlines, the distinction could become important.
A platform that previously transported individual customer orders from China to Europe by air could instead bring larger inventory consignments into European distribution centres.
Ocean freight could be used for replenishment, while airfreight could be retained for urgent or time-sensitive inventory.
The resulting logistics chain would look very different from the direct-parcel model:
Asian production → consolidated international freight → European inventory → local fulfilment → consumer.
Air cargo would therefore not disappear. Its role would simply change.
Capacity searches for its next market
The immediate challenge for airlines is deciding where to redeploy capacity removed from China-Europe e-commerce routes.
Rotate found that much of the capacity had yet to be redeployed, contributing to weaker global freighter utilisation.
Some demand is already moving elsewhere.
“We are seeing some shifts in trade flows, including increased demand for e-commerce shipments from Asia across the Pacific to the United States,” a Lufthansa Cargo spokesperson said.
Customers are also increasingly looking for flexible, short-notice capacity solutions.
For Hunter Chen, Director, International Capacity Department – East China Region at Yanwen Express, China-Europe and China-UK airfreight remained subdued in late August.
Rates were soft, capacity remained plentiful and the conversion of enquiries into bookings was weak. Airlines responded through tighter capacity management and selective cancellations.
Chen expects only a gradual improvement into September.
Tse also noted that Middle East-Europe capacity fell 18% in early 2026, while airspace restrictions forced carriers to adopt longer routings.
Shippers are consequently maintaining alternatives through Hong Kong, Singapore and Central Asian road-air and rail-air solutions.
The direct China-Europe e-commerce model has undoubtedly been disrupted.
But the underlying demand has not disappeared.
Some flows may migrate towards ocean freight, conventional general cargo or European warehousing. Remaining airfreight, meanwhile, will increasingly depend on customs compliance, accurate product data and the ability of logistics operators to integrate those processes into the movement of cargo.
The EU’s de minimis reform is therefore doing more than adding a new cost to low-value parcels. It is forcing a broader redesign of how e-commerce goods enter Europe—and, potentially, how Asia-Europe cargo networks are structured around them.
