Coal’s decline may have been announced far too soon.
That was one of the strongest messages to emerge from the coal panel discussion at Geneva Dry last month, where shipowners, brokers and market analysts openly questioned whether the global energy transition is now entering a more complicated phase. As instability in the Middle East intensifies and concerns over gas supply security grow, coal is quietly reasserting itself as a critical part of the global energy mix with major implications for dry bulk shipping demand.
The discussion, moderated by Benjamin Wilkes, COO of d’Amico Dry, quickly moved beyond traditional ESG narratives and focused instead on the growing importance of energy resilience.
“Coal has been remarkably resilient,” Wilkes told delegates. “It keeps getting knocked down only to rise up and come running back at our ESG departments.”
Much of the debate centred around the escalating tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, a region considered vital for global energy flows. According to several speakers, fears of disruption to gas supplies are already pushing countries back toward thermal coal as a safer and more immediately available alternative.
Burak Cetinok, Head of Research at Arrow, explained that the outlook for seaborne coal had initially looked weak in 2025. Global coal trade volumes were down by roughly 4%, representing almost 60 million tonnes of lost cargo, while shorter trading routes caused coal tonne-miles to fall by nearly 10%.
But the geopolitical situation changed the equation rapidly.
“We are witnessing an energy crisis,” Cetinok said. “Demand for coal is rising and I think we are just at the beginning of it.”
Arrow estimates that the ongoing crisis could generate an additional 55 to 65 million tonnes of coal demand, potentially absorbing the equivalent of nearly 100 capesize vessels from the spot market.
For shipowners, the impact is already becoming visible.
Stamatis Tsantanis, Chairman and CEO of Seanergy Maritime, revealed that approximately 40% of his fleet is currently transporting coal cargoes. He pointed to strong activity on routes linking Australia to the Far East, Colombia to Asia, and even long-haul cargoes from Australia into Europe.
“We haven’t seen the end of coal yet,” Tsantanis said.
Several speakers noted that the conversation is no longer centred purely on emissions reductions. Instead, governments are increasingly prioritising stable electricity supply and strategic fuel reserves.
Nicos Rescos, COO of Star Bulk Carriers, said policymakers are beginning to reconsider earlier assumptions about the speed of decarbonisation.
“The narrative is changing,” he explained. “Industrial groups focused on decarbonising are suddenly realising they need to focus on energy reserves.”
Europe, Japan and South Korea were all mentioned as regions reassessing the future role of coal-fired power generation, while China was repeatedly highlighted as one of the countries best prepared for the current energy uncertainty.
William Fairclough, Managing Director of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, said China learned major lessons during its 2021 energy crisis and has spent years reinforcing its coal supply security.
“Decarbonisation was dominating the long term strategy and suddenly energy security became the most important thing,” Fairclough said.
Although China continues to invest heavily in renewable energy, panellists stressed that coal still represents roughly 60% of the country’s electricity generation and remains an essential backup source during periods of high demand or weak renewable output.
The growing volatility of renewable energy production was another major topic during the session. Cetinok argued that weather-related fluctuations and intermittent renewable generation could actually increase coal demand swings in the future.
“When renewable supply cannot meet demand surges, there’s going to be coal to fall back on,” he said.
India also drew attention during the discussion. While thermal coal imports softened slightly last year, panellists agreed that the country continues to aggressively expand its coal-fired power generation capacity even as renewable projects accelerate.
Attention also turned to Indonesia, currently the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal. Production quotas and export restrictions are creating fresh uncertainty for global markets, although some participants believe Jakarta may eventually ease restrictions if international demand continues to rise.
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face,” Fairclough joked.
Beyond coal itself, several panellists argued that dry bulk shipping fundamentals remain exceptionally strong due to limited vessel supply.
Tsantanis pointed out that nearly 1,100 dry bulk vessels will reach 20 years of age within the next three years, while available newbuilding slots at Chinese shipyards are effectively sold out until 2030.
“The elephant in the room is supply,” he said.
Even among shipping groups reluctant to publicly promote coal exposure, the commodity’s importance remains difficult to ignore. Fairclough admitted that around 60% of Wah Kwong’s kamsarmax exposure is currently linked to coal cargoes.
“It’s not something people like to talk about,” he said. “But it forms a very important bedrock.”
