A quiet but profound geopolitical realignment is reshaping global air cargo flows, redefining which airports gain relevance, which trade lanes expand, and where high-value freight is manufactured and shipped.
For decades, global manufacturing followed a simple logic: China was the default destination. Its combination of low labour costs, dense supplier ecosystems and industrial-scale infrastructure made it the centre of global production for everything from smartphones to server equipment. That model has not disappeared, but it is increasingly fragmenting.
A combination of tariff policies introduced during the Trump administration, disruptions during the pandemic, and a broader strategic shift in the West to reduce dependence on a single manufacturing hub has accelerated supply chain diversification. This transformation is now visible in air cargo data.
US imports of high-tech air freight were up 57% year-on-year in Q1 2026, representing an extra 157,000 tonnes of freight, said Aevean. But the regional breakdown reveals a deeper structural shift. Taiwan led growth with an 83,000-tonne increase (+276%), followed by Vietnam (+36,000 tonnes, +110%), Thailand (+34,000 tonnes, +223%) and Malaysia (+9,000 tonnes, +86%). China, in contrast, declined by 35,000 tonnes, a drop of 32%.
As Strategy Manager Consulting at Aevean, David de Jong puts it, the impact is already visible in capacity terms: “High tech is a key propellant of air cargo in general, with substantial additional volumes — indeed, equivalent to 16 extra daily widebody freighter flights — on the transpacific eastbound in Q1 2026.”
The shift from “China Plus One” to “China Plus X”
The traditional “China Plus One” strategy—where companies kept production in China while adding a single alternative base—has evolved into a more distributed model now referred to as “China Plus X”.
Around 60% of companies are now diversifying across multiple Asian locations rather than relying on one backup country. The objective is not decoupling from China, which remains deeply embedded in global manufacturing and consumption, but reducing concentration risk exposed during the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent supply chain shocks.
Fabio Weiss, Senior Vice President and Head of Airfreight at DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, summarizes this shift clearly: “Supply chains are no longer built around a single hub but engineered for optionality and resilience.”
This structural change is also reflected in DHL’s Air Freight Market Update for April 2026, which shows a 14% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in early Q1, alongside 7% growth in intra-Asia volumes. Regional connectivity is becoming increasingly critical as intermediate goods move between multiple production sites before final assembly and export.
Server demand and Southeast Asia’s rise
Much of the growth in Southeast Asian air freight is being driven by server-related and high-tech manufacturing flows into the United States.
Andrew Chen, Country Manager at Dimerco Vietnam, explains the operational urgency behind this trend: “When manufacturers decide to set up new facilities in places like Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, or India, due to most materials or parts relying on China and Taiwan, they can’t afford delays. Getting a new plant online requires moving highly sensitive manufacturing machinery, spare parts, and initial raw materials as fast as possible, which relies heavily on air freight.”
The commodity mix highlights this transformation clearly. US-bound high-tech imports are led by computers (97,500 tonnes), followed by computer accessories (32,100 tonnes), telecom equipment (30,300 tonnes), and laptops and tablets (25,700 tonnes).
De Jong emphasizes that the shift is concentrated in specific categories: “The key drivers of growth in Southeast Asia’s Q1 exports to the US were primarily server-related commodities.. More China Plus One-related commodities such as desktop computers recorded a more modest shift from China to other Southeast Asian countries.”
He also believes the trend is not temporary: “We believe the high-tech air exports from Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand are structural and will continue to show substantial mid-term growth.”
Taiwan at the centre of the new air cargo network
Taiwan has emerged as a key node in this evolving supply chain structure.
Chen describes a highly coordinated production flow: “Critical components, especially memory products, are being flown in from South Korea to Taiwan. Once assembled into finished AI equipment here, we see a massive surge in outbound air freight directly to the US market.”
This surge has even contributed to macroeconomic impact, with Taiwan reporting a record quarterly GDP growth of 13.69%, driven in part by AI-related exports.
Across Southeast Asia more broadly, electronics and machinery exports are accelerating. Vietnam’s electronics exports rose nearly 50% in 2025, Thailand is benefiting from an industrial rebound, and Malaysia saw a 25.3% increase in electrical and electronic shipments.
Chen also highlights an additional layer of complexity: “Following the AI server wave, more and more suppliers in Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore hugely increase the supply of parts into Taiwan, with a 30 to 40% increment year-on-year.”
This creates a dual flow structure: components moving into Taiwan for assembly, and finished AI equipment moving out to the United States.
Networks, flexibility and multimodal growth
Fabio Weiss notes that carriers are responding by adapting network structures: “We are seeing greater deployment flexibility as carriers shift capacity swiftly to meet the demands of emerging lanes, alongside a clear expansion of secondary city and point-to-point connections.”
At the same time, multimodal logistics is gaining importance. Chen explains: “We are also seeing a huge increase in demand for multimodal solutions, like cross-border trucking door-to-door service from South China with air freight out of hubs in Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. It gives customers the speed they need without relying entirely on direct flights.”
India’s infrastructure evolution
India is also becoming increasingly relevant in global air cargo flows, supported by strong export growth and infrastructure development.
Engineering exports reached $116.67 billion in FY 2024–25, reflecting growing industrial capacity. Ramanathan Rajamani, CEO of Air India Sats Airport Private Limited (AISATS), explains the shift underway: “As India strengthens its position as a global manufacturing and export hub, cargo infrastructure is evolving from being capacity-driven to capability-driven, focused not just on volume handling but on speed, reliability, specialisation, and digital integration.”
The freight forwarder becomes a strategist
As supply chains spread across more countries and regulatory environments, the role of freight forwarders is also changing fundamentally.
Chen describes this transformation directly: “The role of a freight forwarder is no longer just about moving cargo from point A to point B; we have essentially transitioned into supply chain strategic consultants.”
He adds that forwarders must now manage tariff risks, sanctions, export controls and geopolitical uncertainty—turning logistics providers into risk-management partners.
Weiss reinforces this shift: “Resilience is no longer seen as a cost burden but as a key enabler of long-term efficiency and competitiveness in a more complex supply chain landscape. The question is no longer cost versus resilience but how to optimise both simultaneously.”
A structural shift, not a temporary cycle
Despite this diversification, China remains deeply embedded in global supply chains due to its manufacturing depth and infrastructure scale. However, the direction of change is now clearly established.
The data from Q1 2026 does not point to a temporary adjustment, but to a structural reconfiguration of global air cargo flows. Asia’s air freight map is being redrawn progressively—flight by flight—as companies redesign their supply chains around resilience, flexibility and risk diversification rather than pure efficiency.
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