The conflict in the Middle East may be triggering more than temporary diversions in container shipping. According to MDS Transmodal, carriers appear to be redesigning parts of their networks around the Indian Subcontinent.
While the Middle East is a comparatively smaller market, the disruption has forced carriers to rethink how they maintain connectivity across major trade corridors.
Drewry analyst Simon Heaney said the current conflict differs from earlier disruptions such as Covid. While Covid created severe supply constraints and a surge in demand, the present crisis reduces supply on a smaller scale and may even weaken demand.
MDS Transmodal data shows Indian Subcontinent traffic increased by 19.6% between February and April 2026.
Antonella Teodoro of MDS Transmodal said the growth is not uniform, but reflects a structural reconfiguration that reinforces the Indian Subcontinent’s role as a central transit and redistribution point.
Long-haul services from the region to the Far East and North America increased 16%. Capacity from the Indian Subcontinent to Europe and the Mediterranean surged 83.3%, while capacity to Sub-Saharan Africa jumped 237.6%.
MDS Transmodal also identified new service loops in April that were not available before the conflict began. These included Indian Subcontinent–North America services using 81,000 teu, Indian Subcontinent–North America–Latin America services offering 26,000 teu, and Indian Subcontinent–Far East–Latin America–Sub-Saharan Africa services with 41,000 teu.
Teodoro said carriers are increasingly routing cargo through the Indian Subcontinent to maintain links between East-West and North-South corridors.
She added that this is not simply capacity diversion, but a possible shift toward more modular network structures. The Indian Subcontinent is increasingly being used as a flexible transhipment hub that can help carriers manage volatility across multiple trades.
A return to pre-war network structures remains possible, but analysts believe it may not be immediate or complete. A dual-hub system involving both the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent could become a realistic medium-term outcome.
