Morgan Stanley believes the global shipping industry could be entering a prolonged period of vessel undersupply as Asia’s energy security crisis reshapes global trade flows and accelerates demand for tankers, LNG carriers and dry bulk vessels.
In a sweeping 150-page research report,the bank argues that the ongoing Hormuz crisis and broader geopolitical energy tensions are acting as catalysts for what it describes as a once-in-a-generation restructuring of global energy supply chains. According to the report, more than $5 trillion in energy-related investments could flow across Asia by 2030, with shipping and shipbuilding emerging as major long-term beneficiaries.
At the centre of Morgan Stanley’s thesis is a major shift in how Asian economies source energy. As countries increasingly diversify away from Middle Eastern suppliers and turn toward the United States, Latin America, Australia and regional producers, average shipping distances are expected to rise significantly.
The bank says those longer trade routes will require more vessels to move the same amount of cargo, effectively tightening fleet supply and supporting freight markets across several sectors.
Morgan Stanley expects tanker newbuilding activity to continue climbing, with the global tanker orderbook already exceeding 20% of the existing fleet as of April 2026 for deliveries scheduled over the next three to five years.
At the same time, the report warns that available compliant tanker capacity is becoming increasingly limited. Around 19% of crude tankers and 10% of product tankers are currently under sanctions, representing roughly 16% of global tanker capacity.
When adding vessels considered “shadow but not sanctioned”— ships operating outside mainstream compliance channels — Clarksons estimates that nearly 24% of global tanker capacity is effectively removed from the traditional market. Morgan Stanley believes this continues to tighten vessel availability for compliant operators.
Fleet ageing is also becoming a growing concern. About 22% of tanker tonnage worldwide is already 20 years old or more, while the average fleet age has surpassed 14 years. Morgan Stanley says there is a realistic possibility that the tanker orderbook-to-fleet ratio could double by 2030 compared with end-2025 levels as demolition activity accelerates and demand for longer-haul energy transport rises.
The bank compared the current market environment to the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the closure of the Suez Canal forced oil shipments around the Cape of Good Hope and triggered one of the biggest tanker booms in shipping history.
The report also highlighted the broader energy crisis now unfolding globally. Goldman Sachs recently described current supply disruptions as the worst oil crisis in history, pointing out that major economies now hold only around 40 days of crude oil reserves on average, with some countries such as the UK holding as little as two weeks of supply.
JPMorgan similarly warned of a “ticking time bomb” as oil shortages begin spreading through Asian and European markets. The bank noted that if Persian Gulf exports remain heavily disrupted, supply rationing could become unavoidable.
Morgan Stanley also sees major upside for dry bulk shipping, particularly in the coal trade. The bank forecasts global coal demand for power generation could reach 4 billion tonnes annually by 2030, representing the strongest growth of the decade.
Analysts believe Asian governments are increasingly prioritising energy security and stable electricity supply, especially as AI-driven data centre expansion sharply increases power demand. Since Asia controls nearly 60% of global coal reserves, the report argues that coal is likely to play a much larger role in the region’s energy mix than previously expected.
That view closely mirrors discussions held recently at the Geneva Dry conference in Switzerland, where several industry executives suggested coal demand could remain far stronger for longer than many anticipated.
Arrow research head Burak Cetinok told delegates that the Hormuz crisis alone could generate between 55 million and 65 million tonnes of additional seaborne coal demand, equivalent to removing roughly 100 capesize vessels from the spot market.
“We are witnessing an energy crisis,” Cetinok said. “Demand for coal is rising and I think we are just at the beginning of it.”
Star Bulk Carriers COO Nicos Rescos also noted that governments are increasingly shifting their focus away from emissions targets toward securing reliable energy reserves and electricity supply.
“The narrative is changing,” Rescos explained. “Industrial groups focused on decarbonising are suddenly realising they need to focus on energy reserves.”
Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings managing director William Fairclough described the shift even more directly, saying: “Decarbonisation was dominating the long-term strategy and suddenly energy security became the most important thing.”
LNG shipping is another sector expected to benefit from the changing landscape. Morgan Stanley noted that around 250 LNG carriers are currently being built or are already under construction globally as Asian countries continue expanding gas infrastructure and import capacity.
Bernstein analysts also forecast global LNG demand to rise by around 8.5% this year to approximately 441 million tonnes, driven primarily by Asian demand growth. Europe is also expected to maintain elevated LNG imports as countries continue reducing reliance on Russian pipeline gas.
Morgan Stanley believes Asia’s shipbuilding industry will sit at the centre of this new investment cycle. The bank expects vessel supply shortages to persist as older ships are scrapped faster while demand grows for modern tonnage capable of serving longer and more complex energy trade routes.
Beyond shipping itself, Morgan Stanley’s thematic analysts argue that the global energy impact of artificial intelligence is still being underestimated. In a separate report released earlier this year, the bank said AI, geopolitics and energy security are becoming deeply interconnected drivers of global investment decisions.
Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley’s global head of thematic research, warned that the world is entering a period where “compute demand exceeds supply,” forcing massive investments into electricity generation, transmission infrastructure and fuel supply systems.
The bank forecasts global electricity demand will increase by more than one trillion kilowatt-hours annually through 2030, with AI data centres accounting for nearly 20% of that growth.
Energy economists increasingly believe the world is now moving away from decades of “just-in-time” supply chain efficiency toward a “just-in-case” model focused on resilience, diversification and energy security — even if that means relying on longer and more expensive shipping routes.
