The war in Iran has triggered a sharp disruption across some of the world’s most important long-haul air corridors linking Asia Pacific with the rest of the globe, exposing just how dependent global connectivity has become on Middle Eastern hubs.
According to IATA data for March 2026, Middle Eastern carriers recorded year-on-year traffic declines of up to 65% on key Asia Pacific-linked routes. At the same time, airlines from Europe and the Asia Pacific region stepped in quickly, with some corridors seeing growth of up to 80%. But even with that response, the substitution was incomplete and did not fully offset the loss of capacity.
Despite the shock on the supply side, underlying demand in the Asia Pacific market still grew by 3.6% year-on-year, showing that the issue was not demand destruction but rather a major rerouting and redistribution of global capacity.
The impact is especially significant because the Middle East has spent decades building its role as the world’s transfer hub. Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi sit at the centre of global long-haul connectivity between Asia Pacific and other regions, and airlines based there built their entire business models around that geographic advantage. The recent conflict has directly disrupted that structure.
Four major corridors were affected: Africa–Asia Pacific, Europe–Asia Pacific, Latin America & Caribbean–Asia Pacific, and North America–Asia Pacific. All of them have historically relied heavily on Middle Eastern hubs for efficient one-stop connectivity.
On the Africa–Asia Pacific corridor, Middle Eastern carriers saw traffic fall by around 40%. European carriers grew sharply by approximately 83%, African carriers by around 30%, and Asia Pacific carriers by about 13%.
On Europe–Asia Pacific, the decline for Middle Eastern carriers deepened to roughly 50%. Asia Pacific carriers increased by nearly 23%, while European carriers grew by around 15%, with limited participation from other regions.
On the Latin America & Caribbean–Asia Pacific corridor, Middle Eastern traffic fell by about 45%. Asia Pacific carriers surged by roughly 50%, Latin American and Caribbean carriers by around 40%, and North American carriers by approximately 20%.
The most severe disruption was seen on the North America–Asia Pacific corridor, where Middle Eastern carriers recorded a drop of around 65%. European carriers increased by about 20%, North American carriers by roughly 12%, and Asia Pacific carriers by around 10%.
IATA noted that while airlines outside the Middle East increased capacity to fill part of the gap, it was not enough to fully replace the lost services. As a result, passenger load factors reached record levels in March 2026, reflecting tighter market conditions rather than a clean substitution of capacity.
Air Cargo Week has also reached out to IATA for more detailed breakdowns of flight frequencies and capacity changes before and after the disruption, and will update the data once further information becomes available.
