CH Robinson has warned that real air cargo capacity may be tighter than published schedules indicate, as operational constraints continue to reduce usable lift and make demand patterns harder to predict.
In a market update, the US-based freight forwarder said headline capacity levels appear relatively stable, but the amount of space actually available to shippers is lower than those schedules suggest.
The issue is particularly visible on services bound for Europe, where operations are being heavily affected by Middle East airspace closures linked to the US-Iran conflict.
According to CH Robinson, longer routings, fuel-saving measures and selective flight cancellations, particularly on lower-yield lanes, are reducing payload and aircraft utilisation. This is especially affecting Europe-bound flows from Asia.
As a result, the company said effective capacity may be tighter than schedules imply, particularly for spot shipments, and that the risk of rolled cargo or delayed uplift may rise if these constraints continue.
Data from Rotate shows overall air cargo capacity is down by around 3% year on year. The decline is mainly due to capacity reductions of around 20% to 25% on services to and from the Middle East, although direct Asia-Europe capacity has increased by around 30%.
CH Robinson added that spillover cargo from the end of March put additional pressure on capacity at the start of April. It reported cargo backlogs across Asia-origin markets, which have tightened near-term space availability.
The company said demand is not broadly elevated, but shipment timing is creating localised pressure on certain corridors. As a result, lead times on some lanes could stretch into the five- to seven-day range, particularly during the first half of the month.
While some easing may follow once backlogs clear, the forwarder said near-term planning is likely to require added flexibility.
It also pointed to increasingly uneven demand as shippers respond in different ways to geopolitical instability. Some manufacturers are frontloading shipments to stay ahead of higher fuel-related production and transport costs, while others are cutting output in anticipation of weaker demand.
That divergence, CH Robinson said, is making demand patterns across Asia-Europe and transpacific lanes less predictable, even if overall volumes remain relatively stable.
The company added that the rate increases currently being seen in the airfreight market appear to be driven more by higher fuel costs and operational inefficiencies than by stronger demand. It noted that WorldACD figures show demand actually fell by around 4% year on year in March.
CH Robinson said Asia-Europe rates may continue to rise in the short term, but much will depend on fuel prices and route developments. Without a true demand surge, it added, rate stability will largely depend on whether current cost pressures persist, with shippers likely to continue facing elevated all-in pricing as fuel surcharges adjust.
